Covid 19 Delta outbreak: Grand reopening no Greatest Hits, more the 'least worst' option

It's no greatest hits collection, but in the words of Chris Hipkins, the "least worst" option available.

The Government has outlined its plans for New Zealand reopening to the world, with two firm dates and the third more a late April guideline.

From January 17, fully vaccinated New Zealanders can travel from Australia without traversing MIQ, Covid-19 response minister Hipkins announced yesterday.

From February 14, fully vaccinated Kiwis from all other countries can arrive.

And all fully vaccinated foreign nationals can start arriving from April 30. But Hipkins said that date might change, or the overseas influx could be tailored by visa category.

Hipkins at yesterday's Beehive press conference said the plan balanced the demands of multiple groups with the need to prevent a Covid-19 surge.

But the complexity and challenge of managing pandemic prevention systems explained much of the decision, public health expert Prof Michael Baker said.

"It's a mixture of a genuine desire to protect New Zealand from the ravages of the pandemic, and an element of administrative capacity."

It was logistically impossible to open up New Zealand before Christmas, Baker said, with recent challenges showing multiple systems under strain.

The public health expert said the pandemic prevention systems were "groaning" with the volume of demands, including on MIQ and vaccine passes.

"We are in an age where we expect everything to work seamlessly," Baker added. "We are moving into a different strategy now, and what we call a tight suppression approach."

Baker said proposed guidelines for overseas arrivals were more rigorous than for people in locked-down Auckland, who will be able to travel nationwide from December 15.

All overseas arrivals not required to go into MIQ will need a negative pre-departure test, proof of full vaccination, and passenger declaration about travel history.

They must also self-isolate for a week, and get two tests - first on arrival, then a final negative test before joining the community.

From next month, Indonesia, Fiji, India, Pakistan and Brazil will lose the ignominy of being deemed "very high-risk" countries.

Factors including new case numbers, reliability of testing systems, and proportion of tests returning positive results determined if a country fell into the very high-risk group.

Cases in Europe have surged in the past fortnight but elsewhere the global situation was often more promising. In Japan, new research suggested Delta drove itself towards extinction after several mutations.

But Baker said nobody here should pin hopes on a similar scenario.

"That would probably convert me into having a belief in a higher power," he said when asked about chances of the Delta variant self-destructing in New Zealand anytime soon.

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins, (front) with Dr Ashley Bloomfield at yesterday's 1pm press conference. Photo / Mark Mitchell

It was more likely the virus would keep circulating in New Zealand, but high vaccination rates and widespread face mask use could greatly mitigate its spread, he said.

Malcolm Pacific Immigration chief executive and director David Cooper said reaction from his colleagues and clients to the border announcement was largely positive.

"At least now, we have something to work towards."

Cooper told the Herald many Kiwis had previously been eager to fly home but reluctant to take up MIQ places.

He said it was still to be seen how self-isolation would work, and what sorts of accommodation would be regarded as adequate for self-isolation.

Opposition parties blasted the three-step travel announcement.

"This timetable to open New Zealand to the world is truly pathetic," National's Covid-19 response spokesman Chris Bishop said.

He said Hipkins already admitted no fully vaccinated travellers from Australia for months tested positive for Covid, so there was no reason the trans-Tasman bubble should not reopen now.

A major airline and immigration adviser has welcomed the three-step border opening plan. Others are less enthusiastic. Photo / AP

Act said Labour was "the Grinch who stole Christmas for no reason", depriving Kiwis overseas of a chance to come home.

"Where is the cost-benefit analysis for closing the border to Australia until next year?" party leader David Seymour said.

"What is the justification for knee-capping the tourism industry for another four months?"

Hospitality New Zealand chief executive Julie White was unimpressed with the three-step plan.

She said more hospitality firms will collapse if foreign nationals are barred until April 30.

"I'm completely baffled as to why our borders can't be opened to tested and vaccinated people from safe countries well before then," White said.

Flight Centre managing director David Coombes said several problems with the announcement dampened his excitement.

"We do question why this action needs to wait until 2022, given the desperation of many families to reunite with their loved ones ahead of Christmas."

Coombes said a week's isolation was excessive for fully vaccinated visitors who were repeatedly tested for Covid.

"We sincerely hope today's announcement is the worst-case scenario and welcome all conversations from the Government to land on a sooner date with simpler, more logical safety measures. "

The country's biggest airline was more upbeat.

"Today's announcement signals the beginning of the return to international travel," Air New Zealand executive Leanne Geraghty said.

"This is incredibly exciting news for New Zealanders at home and overseas and we can't wait to welcome our customers back on board."

She said it would have been desirable to reunite people before Christmas, but at least customers now had confidence to plan holidays into the New Year.