PM Jacinda Ardern tells NZ Herald’s deputy political editor Derek Cheng about the freedoms the unvaccinated will miss out on and how NZ will look under the new “traffic light” system. Video / Marty Melville
ANALYSIS
There are currently hundreds of Delta-infected Aucklanders isolating at home, but fully vaccinated travellers who have tested negative still have to spend 14 days in MIQ.
Such strict MIQ rules were needed while Auckland was part of the country's Covid-free bubble, but that has well and truly burst.
Sohow much risk is too much? And is that threshold crossed with a fully vaccinated person in home-isolation in Auckland, who likely doesn't have the virus because they've already tested negative?
An announcement on MIQ changes is expected some time this week, but there have already been hints that the MIQ gates will not open wider until the start of next year - though shorter MIQ stays are expected to start sooner.
MIQ facilities in the future won't be for overseas arrivals, but for high-risk cases that shouldn't isolate at home. Photo / Michael Craig
The Delta outbreak has changed the way cases are managed in Auckland, with low-risk ones isolating at home and quarantine rooms being kept for those most at risk of spreading the virus.
The system is far from a well-oiled machine; the Ministry of Health has already apologised to a case in the North Shore who was stuck at home for days with her immunocompromised parents while waiting to be moved into MIQ.
And then there was the Ōrewa man who helped a distressed woman, and later found out she had the virus and was meant to be in self-isolation.
This illustrates the high-trust model for home-isolation. It clearly carries risk. The question is whether it can be done without adding fuel to the Delta fire.
Being vaccinated and having a negative pre-departure test is no guarantee, and there are currently 33 active cases at the border.
This is tiny compared to the 1223 active community cases, but the number would swell if the floodgates were opened.
Currently about 2000 returnees fly to New Zealand every week, but tens of thousands are vying for MIQ room vouchers.
If, for example, 5000 returnees a week were allowed to self-isolate in Auckland, how many might unknowingly be infected?
Then there's the risk of someone breaking the rules and leaving Auckland, potentially taking the virus to the West Coast, where there are level 2 freedoms and only 63 per cent of the eligible population are fully vaccinated.
Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said the changes to MIQ won't mean an immediate opening of the floodgates for those Kiwis overseas wanting to come home. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Other issues include whether it's even workable to have a different set of rules for returnees depending on where they live, and workforce constraints.
A risk-assessment is done on every community case in Auckland to see if home-isolation is suitable. There are roughly 100 cases a day who are assessed. How many more resources would be needed to do the same assessment on 5000 travellers a week?
The pressure is on the Government, though, following countless stories of an MIQ lottery that has left tens of thousands ropeable.
And National and Act have both been calling on the Government to loosen MIQ requirements.
National MP Chris Bishop released numbers last week that showed only 19 fully vaccinated travellers had tested positive in MIQ from August 23 to October 12.
Of the thousands of travellers through MIQ in those months, only two fully vaccinated returnees tested positive after day eight in MIQ.
It would seem that much of the risk could be managed by halving the MIQ stay to one week for the fully vaccinated. That would enable twice as many returnees into the country, which, with such a low positivity rate, could still be seen as an acceptably low level of risk.
The Government might indeed start with that rather than jumping straight to home-isolation.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will also be keenly watching the pilot for business travellers, set to begin soon, which is expected to include home-isolation, location-tracking, and rapid antigen testing.
Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins told the Herald recently that the floodgates to returnees won't open until "probably" early next year.
That timeline depends on many factors, including how the outbreak is tracking in Auckland, and when Aucklanders will be allowed to leave the city, which would increase the risk of Delta spreading all over the country.
One factor that could bring forward the timeline is vaccination.
If 90 per cent of the eligible population in every DHB are fully vaccinated, then everywhere is protected enough, according to Ardern, to throw away lockdown boundaries and enable movement around the country.
It would be reasonable to think that, under those circumstances, everywhere should also be protected enough to allow returnees into home-isolation.
