“Razor close” is how one of Labour’s campaign team assessed the state of play six months out from an election which is shaping up to be nothing like the Labour-wash of 2020 - and in which a small group of voters could make a big difference.
The NZ Herald has talked to campaign heads Chris Bishop (National) and Megan Woods (Labour) and looked at the campaign teams to find out how prepared they are, which voters they think will swing the election, and how they hope to win those voters over.
Both Woods and Bishop say it will be a classic doozy of an MMP election as polling continues to show the centre-left (Labour-Greens) and centre-right (National-Act) groupings at level pegging – and sometimes with Te Pati Māori as a kingmaker.
Those involved in the campaigns on all sides agree on two things.
First, that it is shaping to be a very close election and nothing like the red wash that delivered Labour a majority Government in 2020. Even small shifts in the vote could make a world of difference.
The second is that it will very much be a cost-of-living election.
“It’s a classic MMP drag race,” one of Labour’s campaign strategists said. “Small shifts in the vote could have a big impact on who is in government.”
That means both National and Labour are targeting the same voters.
And there is everything to play for.
Labour estimates there are about 400,000 – 600,000 voters in play – those whose minds were not yet made up and could go either way on the day.
They are the same pool National is courting, although it estimates that group is as high as one million - about 30 per cent of the voting population.
Both Labour and National say they are the voters who will decide the election.
Labour’s campaign chair, Megan Woods, says it is mainly working people.
“A lot of those people are doing it pretty tough at the moment. We are in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis. They’re working hard and they feel they’re not getting ahead. What they’ll be wanting to look for in this election campaign is parties and leaders who get that, who understand it and have solutions.”
National too has been targeting that group in its messaging – party leader Christopher Luxon’s “squeezed middle” or “hard-working New Zealanders”.
It is the same group National and Labour fight over almost every election – but this year rampant inflation and the associated impact on mortgage rates has given that group one major topic of concern in common.
The economy is a dominant issue in almost every election but the cost-of-living crisis has made it even more of a factor this time, to the point of turning into almost a one-issue election.
Expect the parties – especially National and Labour – to act accordingly.
Labour leader (and Prime Minister) Chris Hipkins this week signalled as much, promising a “no frills” period ahead in his pre-Budget speech. “Rather than a long laundry list of worthy ideas, I want the Government to do a small number of things very well.” And he said those would mainly relate to the economy.
This will make the main parties’ finance spokespeople, Grant Robertson and Nicola Willis, even more critical than in the past.
Willis – whose job it is to convince voters National can once again be credible managers of the books after the Key/English pairing – cannot afford to make any mistakes that imperil this.
Robertson will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat for the working New Zealanders on low to moderate incomes – those National has firmly in its sights and for whom the words “tax cuts” are like a siren to seamen.
Tax cuts will be National’s big impact policy - a recent Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll showed 65 per cent of voters supported adjusting tax rates with inflation. That is a lot of voters.
And the question both Luxon and Willis are now posing with increasing regularity is that for all its support for beneficiaries and those on low incomes, just what is Labour doing for working New Zealanders struggling to pay the mortgage?
National’s offering for those people is those tax cuts although its final package is yet to be unveiled, including the extent of its plan to index income tax brackets to inflation.
Labour is also yet to deliver its tax policy and will not do so until after the Budget and close to the election.
The Budget in a fortnight or so will provide more answers on what Labour is doing to alleviate the cost of living. All Hipkins has said so far is that it will offer “targeted support” to those who need it most.
This election delivers what should be a more evenly balanced contest than the eras of Sir John Key and Jacinda Ardern.
The fierce personal loyalty both Key and Ardern got from their support base bordered on cult-of-personality territory, which was hard for a leader on the opposite side to puncture in the presidential-style elections of today.
This time round both National and Labour have fairly new leaders in Luxon and Hipkins – both of whom garner a more ambivalent reaction from the voters. That will make policy more important, but both Woods and Bishop say the leader will still be a big focus of the campaign.
Megan Woods: “How crucial will the leader be? The leader is always crucial. I think that as much as we want to say it shouldn’t be a presidential-style campaign and it should be about the contest of policy and ideas, you can’t get away from the fact that New Zealanders will be lining up the two Chrises and thinking ‘who will be the better PM?’”
Each comes with pros and cons.
Hipkins has a head start on the critical question of trust and is well known by the voters, courtesy of his longer political career and his role as Covid-19 Minister. Labour’s internal research is said to show that his plain speaking and move to focus on “bread and butter” has resonated with voters – and that has been reflected in the public polls so far.
He has a good political instinct. However, he has never held an economic portfolio and has to bone up a lot on that front given its dominance in the election.
Luxon likes to talk up his experience before politics – albeit a significant chunk of it overseas - and has a strong grasp on the economy, which shows.
He also tried to emphasise that Hipkins is the career politician, often speaking of getting “out of the beltway”.
Luxon has not yet developed a political instinct – or at least seems unsure if he can trust it.
Critically, he is yet to earn the trust of voters. Since Hipkins took over, Luxon’s rating as preferred PM has dropped back into the teens, although National’s polling has held fairly firm in the mid-30s. Luxon has at least won back most of National’s core base, although a significant chunk are sticking to the alternative option of Act.
In person, both Hipkins and Luxon are likeable – but Luxon is having a harder time getting voters to see that. He is not the first to have struggled to get likeability translated through mass media.
Labour is more than happy to try to exploit that.
Woods says of Hipkins: “New Zealanders like him … in a way they’re not connecting with Chris Luxon.”
When asked about his apparent inability to connect, Luxon has said people are still getting to know him after just two years as an MP.
When it is put to Woods that people might indeed warm to him, she is blunt. “Yeah, we used to tell ourselves that about some past leaders as well. I think that two years is a long time for an electorate to get to know someone.”
Luxon has made most of National’s policy announcements thus far, rather than leaving it to spokespeople, and Bishop said Luxon will be a big focus of its campaign. “You’re asking New Zealanders to vote for a Prime Minister, so the leader will be front and centre.”
However, he says it will also highlight the rest of the front bench, which would form the core of the next Cabinet – the likes of Willis, Erica Stanford and Bishop himself – to show National is well-placed to govern.
“New Zealanders are anxious and worried about the future and unhappy with the direction of the country. The job for National is to show we’ve got the right plans and policies to take New Zealand forward and deliver economic management that means better public services. That’s what many elections have been about, and this is no different in that sense.”
In Luxon’s favour, National is still seen as the better option when it comes to tackling inflation and the economy, according to the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll.
But since Hipkins took over and drove home the “bread and butter” mantra, National’s lead on that issue has shrunk significantly, from 26 per cent of voters to just 11 per cent in the April poll. Similar shifts have happened in the two other areas where National had the advantage: In economy and in law and order.
As for those former leaders, it’s likely Sir John Key – whose tick of approval for Luxon was critical in handing him the leadership in late 2021 – will pop up every now and then over the election period to primp Luxon’s credentials.
However, former PM Jacinda Ardern will be nowhere near Labour’s campaign – she will be in Boston for the semester at Harvard University.
The teams behind the leaders are also in place and both National and Labour have opted for experience.
Labour is sticking largely with its 2020 team of Megan Woods as the campaign chair and Hayden Munro as campaign director. It is also using the same ad agencies used by Ardern: Augusto and Hunch.
National’s campaign team consists of Chris Bishop, in his first outing as campaign chair, while the old hand of Jo de Joux is back as campaign director – de Joux was charged with campaigns throughout the John Key years but sat out the 2020 election. She has also brought back the ad creatives used by Key – the creators of the rowing boat ads (of Eminesque fame) – Sue Worthington and Glenn Jameson.
The high-profile Topham Guerin will do its digital and social media work.
National has a significant advantage in terms of money – since the start of 2022 it has declared more than $2.5 million in large donations alone, mainly from rich-listers. Act has declared about $2m from many of the same donors. Labour on the other hand has only scraped up about $150,000 in large donations.
Woods said it was confident it would have enough to fight a good election, saying most of its funding came from smaller donations which were well below the level of disclosure. “We are very aware that we are going to have well-resourced oppositions - very large donations are flowing into Act and National. But I’m satisfied with where we are at.”
For both parties electorate selections are almost done, the party lists will come out in July.
Labour knows full well it will come back in much fewer numbers than the 65 seats it has now – Woods said many of the electorates it won last time were “unexpected” and the MPs are well aware of the challenge it will be to hold on to them.
Whichever Chris triumphs, both Labour and National are struggling to get over 40 per cent in the polls and so the smaller parties aligned with each of them are shaping up to be significant forces in the next Government.
In an election campaign, those parties are frenemies: They are both the path to power, but also gun for the larger party’s voters - the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori try to woo Labour’s supporters, and Act National’s. NZ First wants anybody’s vote as it tries to get back into Parliament.
The more National and Labour focus on those voters in the centre, the easier those pickings are on the outskirts.
For example, it will not upset the Greens that Hipkins threw a couple of climate-related projects on to his bonfire, or that he did not include climate change in his list of top priorities in the Budget.
It makes more room for them in that space.
NZ First will also be trying to adjust its plans to the Hipkins changeover. Its leader, Winston Peters, had already ruled out working with Labour in the next term, in the event he was kingmaker. Te Pāti Māori could also be instrumental, with polls showing it could be the kingmaker.
We look at the smaller parties next week.
National and NZ First will will not support the bill past a first reading.