Colin James
On Monday
Let's do the numbers.
To command a majority in Parliament, Jenny Shipley or Helen Clark must get minimum backing of 46 to 47 per cent of the vote if either New Zealand First or the Greens have seats - probably a bit over 48 per cent if both do.
Mrs Shipley has the harder task. National has bled support since February to around 30 per cent in polls late last week. United adds the equivalent of 1 per cent, but to make up the gap National has only Act.
Winston Peters has sworn to let the party with the most seats govern. Labour, all year, has been that party.
But to lay the platform for a majority, Labour needs a heroic 10 per cent leap from its 28 per cent 1996 score. Even then, if Mr Peters is in Parliament, it needs either 9 per cent from the Alliance or a combined 11 per cent from the Alliance and the Greens.
Recent polls tipping this have excited Labour strategists and Helen Clark has opened Labour's end-game gambit: a claim that only Labour can get majority backing so middle New Zealand should swell Labour's vote to swamp the Alliance and Greens.
Her problem is that Labour's electorate support is soaring about 8 per cent above its party support, in effect pouring votes down the drain.
This is partly due to heavy promotion of electorate candidates and soft-focus advertising which neither set the brand in sharp focus nor gave compelling reasons to vote for Labour.
Non-enrolments and non-voting among its core target group are also a worry.
So National still has the sort of chance France took in the Rugby World Cup semifinal. It has hoarded funds and TV time for this week to hit Labour on tax, unions and other differences.
But the first ads over the weekend did not pack killer punches, so Labour has decided not to counter them.
Instead, it is "pointing over the horizon" in television ads, talking about what it will do in Government (to sharpen up the picture for voters), pushing the party vote harder and stopping candidates trading party support for Alliance electorate endorsement.
Does it matter? The UMR-Insight poll records big "time for a change" majorities, CM Research has similar majorities assessing New Zealand as becoming a worse place and Colmar Brunton records high disapproval of the Government. Even Act's brilliant attempt to divert change rightwards hasn't dented those.
