Winston Peters speaks about election night results.
OPINION
There is a very limited window for National leader Christopher Luxon to relish his post-election euphoria as he deals with the conundrum of whether to cut its deals now - or cut them later, after the final vote count.
The deal with Act is the easiest choice: that canbe done now, even if last-minute tweaks are needed.
Luxon - who yesterday put forward his credentials in mergers and acquisitions as prepping him for the job of cutting deals - and Seymour have likely already worked out some of the give and take in their regular lunch meetings.
The question of New Zealand First is harder. Act certainly won’t want National dealing in NZ First before the final votes are known. But equally, NZ First won’t want the deal with Act done before it knows whether or not it will get its own deal. That will not be clear until the final votes.
As things stand on the election night results, National and Act have only the narrowest of margins.
If National and Act can only scramble together a one-seat majority on the final votes, there is sense in trying to secure NZ First’s support on confidence and supply at least. Act might have to peg its nose, but it’s understood Act too believe NZ First should be dealt in if that was the case.
A one-seat majority is nerve-wracking. It can disappear fast if there is sudden byelection because an MP quits or jumps waka.
A deal with NZ First would be insurance against a collapse of the Government in such a scenario. It would also mean they did not have to go to NZ First for support for every single measure, including confidence and supply votes. That would be a nightmare scenario.
It will come at a price: NZ First would not want to be the mere add-ons.
Where things might get sticky is if Luxon casts his eyes at NZ First if Act and National have a two- or three-seat buffer, and Luxon does not need them to govern. That might be a good move politically: it would stop NZ First becoming an Opposition party (one of four).
However, Act will baulk at that. National’s voters might also baulk at that, since Luxon delivered unequivocal statements that he did not want to work with NZ First and would only include them in his Government if he had to, as a “last resort.”
Chris Hipkins concedes the election win to Christopher Luxon on Saturday night. Photo / Mark Mitchell
As for Labour, the bulk of its MPs and ousted MPs have spent Sunday licking their wounds.
That too will have to be a quick process: they are now staring into the abyss of a return to Opposition, with all the horrors that entails.
Already, minds are turning to the future of Labour leader Chris Hipkins - and once minds start turning to that, ambition follows close behind.
There are already whispers about who might put their hands up when that time comes. There is also little doubt that that time will come: it is just unclear when.
The names doing the rounds include Carmel Sepuloni and Peeni Henare - both of whom said stability was important and it was far too early to have any such discussions. Kieran McAnulty has firmly ruled himself out.
There is no immediate push to roll Hipkins. For a start, some MPs are still waiting for the final vote count to find out if they will still be an MP.
Those MPs who have been in Opposition in the past are also well aware of how messy things can get if they aren’t done carefully. Even when they are done carefully, things tend to get messy.
As yet, Hipkins’ own intentions are not clear. They may become clearer on Monday or Tuesday when the caretaker Cabinet and then caucus meet. If he decides to stay on as leader, he’ll have to survive a post-election vote of confidence from caucus - that has to take place within three months of the election, and he’d have to get 60 per cent support plus one.
It is possible he would get that support if the bulk of MPs decided stability was indeed important and wanted him to stay while they bedded in. That is particularly the case if a raft of other senior MPs decide to leave rather than face Opposition: the likes of Grant Robertson, David Parker and Andrew Little will all face this question.
However, Hipkins also knows how this situation has played out in the past. There is no animosity toward him, everybody knew it was going to be a tough ask pulling off a win, no matter who the leader was.
But leaders who lose elections, especially by as much as Labour, do not tend to have long leadership expectations. MPs decide fresh faces, fresh voices are the solution (often it is not).
The only question is whether the rest of the MPs think anybody else could do better.
