OPINION
No, we’re not quite there yet, despite two weeks of assurances from the negotiating parties that a breakthrough in forming the next Government is mere days away.
But as of last night, it was starting to sound very promising that those assurances could come true. target="_blank">Act did not have its meeting with National, because the deal was so close it wasn’t needed. NZ First’s Winston Peters was chipper and indicated theirs wasn’t far behind.
It’s hopefully safe to say the horse-trading stage of proceedings is done: the bit where the parties cave in on some hold-out areas in return for getting something else.
Hopefully the parties are also working out a disputes process: a way to work out the inevitable differences of opinion they might have, differences that can end up bringing down a government if they cannot be resolved.
The final burst of horse-trading is likely to be over the ministerial posts the parties get.
The Deputy Prime Minister’s role was still in play as of Friday. It is almost a symbolic position but still important.
Neither will want to cede it lightly. Act can argue it is bigger than NZ First, so should get it, given there are no viable equally significant roles going.
It could well end up in Winston Peters’ hands again: but Act would almost inevitably extract a price for that in the form of another ministerial gain, either a hefty portfolio or an extra minister.
Luxon’s deputy Nicola Willis might be the neutral option for it, but her comment about putting her ego to one side might indicate she has not got it. Luxon can justify giving it to Peters as recognition of Peters’ seniority and experience.
Seymour can make a virtue out of ceding it to Peters, by saying he had always said he would be happy to eschew mere status for policy gains.
Both Act and NZ First have tried to downplay the importance of the so-called “baubles” (ministerial posts) they might hold. However, they are critically important.
Both parties will also want their own people to be ministers in policy areas most important to them. It is the minister who has the power and influence to deliver those policies; and it is the minister, and therefore their party, who gets the credit for them.
The portfolios that will be most sought after will be those which come with big money attached.
One of the biggest daddies when it comes to the moolah is the infrastructure area.
It’s a fair bet NZ First will seek the Infrastructure Minister’s role or transport, probably for Shane Jones
A hint to that is in the late introduction of National’s transport spokesman Simeon Brown to National’s negotiating team – a clear sign roading and infrastructure are a key part of the talks.
Whether NZ First gets it is another question; infrastructure is also one of National’s areas of big spending, and currently in the hands of Chris Bishop. It will likely want to keep that in its own hands.
But, at a minimum, Jones could secure economic development again, with an associate infrastructure portfolio. However it is worked out, NZ First will also want assurances it will have influence in the infrastructure area.
Both Act and NZ First will also want some level of involvement in the finance portfolio, through the associate finance roles and economic portfolios, to give them more involvement in the Budget process.
The length of time the negotiations are taking is partly because all the parties have fairly good leverage.
It was always going to take a bit more than throwing a few titbits and pet projects at Act and NZ First and expecting them to be content.
As yet, we know very little about what those parties have secured. We do know some standard negotiating ploys have come into play.
National stood accused of disappointing both Act and NZ First with its opening written offers, delivered last Friday. Of course National was going to start with a low bid. That’s how deal-making works.
Of course those two parties were going to return the serve with an unrealistic counter.
Sources have said Winston Peters returned to the negotiating table this week with his re-write of National’s skimpy document – and delivered a lengthy and excruciatingly detailed tome.
It is little wonder National had to meet alone for three hours prior to letting Peters into the room as they tried to decipher it.
The differences over National’s tax policy have also continued. Finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis is still refusing to say whether the foreign buyers’ tax will go ahead. She has changed her language slightly, however, from saying the tax cuts package will be fully funded by cuts and revenue raising elsewhere, to saying it will be “funded responsibly”.
After long days cloistered away in hotel rooms, the end of coalition talks and the commencement of National leader Christopher Luxon’s actual “get cracking” stage will come as relief to more than Luxon, Act and NZ First.
It will also come as a relief to Labour’s leader Chris Hipkins, who lingers as Prime Minister in nothing but name. Hipkins is sitting in a limbo land, unable to get cracking on his own new job as Leader of the Opposition, despite the rich amount of material playing out in front of him.
It will come as a relief for the Treasury officials, who will expect to muscle together a mini-Budget in short order but as yet have little idea what its contents might end up being.
A deal seems to have been “close” for a long time now.
Once it’s all over, Luxon will have learned a couple of important things from the process of those talks. If he takes those lessons on board, they will serve him well later in his premiership.
One is that sometimes it is the job of a prime minister to make reassuring noises to voters, even if noise is all there is to offer. That applies both after a natural disaster or a shocking event when people need to see leadership. It also applies when it comes to the basics of governing.
Luxon finally relented on his initial plan to hold coalition talks completely in a cloak of secrecy; an effort that until Tuesday involved the parties organising different hotels and meeting rooms around Wellington and Auckland purely to try to avoid being seen walking in and out of them.
As that dragged up to the two-week mark, this week Luxon thankfully realised it was unsustainable and started to front properly and allow media to speak to those coming in and out of the talks. It has had the added benefit of putting Winston Peters in a better mood.
So Luxon should have. He was starting to look like a laughing stock after all his big-noting early on about being a great deal maker. It was also starting to look like he’d lost control of his own process, and there was uncertainty building about what was going on.
Fronting every day, even if only for a basic progress report, goes some way to reassuring voters all is still in hand - and keeps Luxon visible.
Until this week, only Act leader David Seymour had seemed to recognise that. He said this week he had fronted regularly because the politicians were voted in by the public, and he thought the public deserved to hear from them. He did it well. He didn’t get combative or defensive.
It made him look constructive and conciliatory. Starting off with that perception of him will have a longer-term benefit for him.
The other lesson for Luxon is a fairly basic one: not to over-sell before you know you can deliver the goods.
Luxon likes to look like a man who is in a hurry, on a mission. He walks fast, he talks fast and he promises big.
He began his talks by saying he wanted to “get cracking” and would turn the country around. Big talk needs a big walk.
Claire Trevett is the NZ Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the NZ Herald in 2003 and joined the Press Gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery.
National and NZ First will will not support the bill past a first reading.