New leader, but same problems to fix.
If all goes well, by the end of Sunday, Labour will have a new leader and the country will have a new Prime Minister and that person will be Chris Hipkins.
If all doesn’t go well – and Hipkins can’t get two-thirds of the caucus to back him - then Labour will be preparing to go to its membership for a leadership contest that will do even more harm to the party’s already damaged chances of winning the election. The public will be left hanging for possibly weeks. The perception will be that Labour’s members and union affiliates are electing a new PM. It is not what Labour want or need.
Replacing a leader in government is a totally different kettle of fish to doing so in Opposition. Whoever takes over has to be able to be the Prime Minister immediately. In Opposition there is time to make gaffes and learn ropes and wobble on training wheels.
In government there is not, and that is especially the case in an election year and with the country staring into the economic abyss. That is why it should be Hipkins.
Hipkins is not the only one who could do that. But he is the one best placed to contend with the heap of problems on the plate. For while the leader might change, Labour’s problems will not.
The new leader’s first job is not necessarily reassuring the Labour Party base – it is speaking to those voters that have abandoned it.
Michael Wood might well be the favoured option for that Labour base – he is something of a hero for his efforts in labour relations in particular. But he could be a better option for Opposition.
The new leader will have to deal with the very same problems that Ardern would have had to deal with and those relate to the unpopularity of some of the reforms Labour was pushing through. It needs someone who is not wedded to ideology.
It is never easy stepping into the shoes of a Prime Minister who has been immensely popular. It will - and already has been – predicted that they will be a failure, that nobody could do better than Ardern.
But it can be done: ask former National leader Bill English.
The key to English’s success in taking over from Key was trust: he had built up a bank of trust with the voters that made it easier for him to inherit Key’s support.
That was why Robertson was the best option for Labour until he decided he wasn’t. Barring a last-minute change of heart from him, Hipkins is next best.
People know him because of the Covid-19 response. He proved to be a straight-shooter who gave matter-of-fact answers to questions and ‘fessed up when he’d stuffed up.
In that way he is a bit of foil to Ardern, whose communication style was compelling on the right occasions but more convoluted. He is also a bit of a political foil. He and Ardern are close but don’t agree on everything. He is seen as more centrist than she and that makes some decisions easier.
He does not have her charisma. But nor is he as polarising as she now is.
The question of the deputy leader will also come up. It is less critical, but also important. That will be either Kiri Allan or Carmel Sepuloni. Allan still has some rough edges when it comes to being a politician and that can be refreshing. Sepuloni is solid as a rock, based in Auckland and has safe hands.
As for Robertson, he needs to stay on as finance minister. Trying to portray massive upheavals in caucus as a “fresh start” is little more than flimsy spin to try to disguise chaos.
In the current economic climate, stability and continuity was Labour’s biggest campaign asset. That should not be completely squandered. All politicians know that in their heads. The trouble is ego has a tendency to get in the way.
The difference between National when Key handed over and Labour now is that National was still very popular when Key stepped down – and Labour in Opposition was struggling.
The question is not whether Labour’s goose is cooked now that Ardern has gone: but whether it was cooked anyway. It is actually very uncertain what the change in leadership will actually mean for Labour’s prospects.
National has bucked up its act – Luxon’s primary job now is convincing people he is ready to be Prime Minister.
The new Labour leader will now have to do the same thing.
The big question is whether the next leader will have the stomach to do what is required to deal with those problems and give Labour a fighting chance.
Ardern was aware of what that was – but she was perhaps reluctant to do it, driven by principle and the desire to make reforms she thought were needed rather than stark political pragmatism.
Hipkins will not be so squeamish about that. It will be easier for him to do it.
He has less skin in the game – Ardern had given her personal backing into many of the reforms Labour is now struggling with. It will be easier for Hipkins to back away from some without losing face. He will also be happy to be more merciless about it if it is what is required. He will not want to fail.
As for whether Hipkins will get it, he was being a tad mischievous this week when he declared that Labour’s leadership contest would not be the Hunger Games process that National had demonstrated in recent years.
Hipkins is very well aware that Labour itself had put on an outstanding series of the Hunger Games in its own time in Opposition when it screeched from Phil Goff to David Shearer to David Cunliffe to Andrew Little before hitting the jackpot with Jacinda Ardern. One of those was anointed (Goff), the next three were the results of sometimes bitter contests that took their toll on caucus unity – and its polling. Ardern was a caucus pick.
National’s similar stretch of woes brought back bitter memories of that era for the Labour MPs who were around at the time: including Hipkins.
Those MPs will be the ones most hellbent on having an uncontested election. The risk is that the new backbenchers – and there are a lot of them – do not appreciate that.
It will be a big test of Labour’s discipline. Dealing with that massive caucus, especially as panic sets out about the prospect of losing seats, will also be one of the new leader’s biggest challenges.
Because whether or not the leadership election becomes the Hunger Games, the election campaign certainly will be.
He's facing five charges for alleged crimes over three days.