Claire Trevett: If Hamilton West byelection was Labour’s canary, it’s in line for a walloping

OPINION:

Make no mistake: no matter what Labour says now about the results of the Hamilton West byelection it will be – and should be – very worried about it.

Because if that byelection does turn out to be a sign of what is to come in 2023, Labour is in line for a walloping.

It does pay to be cautious about reading too much into a byelection, but it also pays not to brush off the lessons voters deliver in them.

Both National and Labour went into the byelection claiming to be the underdogs.

Labour actually was the underdog; National was simply trying to highlight that the swing of the vote in the seat since 2020 would be massive.

The immediate response from both sides to the result was instructive. Winners are grinners and a jubilant Chris Bishop said the result showed “change is coming”. (Leader Christopher Luxon later issued a clearly needed and timely warning against arrogance and complacency.)

Meanwhile, Labour’s Nanaia Mahuta was frantically hosing down any suggestion of a link between the byelection and the 2023 general election, arguing that the argument Hamilton West was a bellwether seat was flawed and byelections now did not reflect the mood of the people in a year’s time.

Labour’s Georgie Dansey got a mere 30 per cent of the votes cast while National’s Tama Potaka got 46 per cent. And the Green Party was not in the contest to carve off some of the left votes while Act was – although former MP Gaurav Sharma may have carved off some of Labour’s votes.

It is not hard for Labour to find reasonable excuses for the results, or at least factors which make it effectively a poll on how people are feeling now, rather than in a year’s time.

The turnout is one: an abysmal 31 per cent. More people vote in general elections than byelections because they are choosing a government and a prime minister, but it was low even by byelection standards.

That in itself raises a big question for Labour: the turnout was so low and the Labour candidate’s share of it so low that either its supporters are not bothering to vote – or they are no longer there at all. The same lesson was also clear in the local body elections, especially in Auckland where Labour’s endorsed candidate Efeso Collins struggled.

Labour’s Georgie Dansey faced an uphill battle from the start because of what was going on around her. There was the circus around former Labour MP Gaurav Sharma that triggered the byelection in the first place.

Dansey was trying to campaign while the Government faced flak on crime after the killing of Janak Patel, the Reserve Bank hiking the OCR and warning of recession and a grim 2023. There was the kerfuffle over the Three Waters reforms. Some of those things will still be in play in 2023.

As for National, it is the second byelection win under Luxon’s belt in just one year as a leader. National needed the win more than Labour did in practical terms. It gives them one extra MP – and with that comes a smidgen of extra Parliamentary resourcing.

More importantly, it is a Māori MP.

Potaka has an impressive background. National might have a string of Māori candidates lined up for 2023, but its current lack of diversity is a big problem for it when it comes to putting up an alternative Cabinet in the here and now.

If Potaka goes well in the next year, and National does win, he could well find himself moving straight into that Cabinet as Māori Development minister. That is as much an economic role as a social role, and Potaka has experience in iwi leadership and with the NZ Super Fund. He is no slouch.

Labour candidate Georgie Dansey congratulates National's Tama Potaka on the byelection win. Photo / Mike Scott

One of the factors of the byelection that it is hoped will come through in 2023 is the decency with which the campaign happened. Dansey turned up in person at Potaka’s function to congratulate him, saying she was at least pleased that the electorate had tangata whenua representation. It was the end of what seemed to be a respectful campaign by decent candidates.

There was another winner on the day of the byelection: National’s pollster David Farrar.

Farrar’s company Curia Research conducted the byelection poll commissioned by the Taxpayers’ Union and Working Group.

Election days are just as nerve-wracking for the pollsters as the candidates as they wait to see if their polls will be discredited as bunkum - and byelections are difficult to get right.

So Farrar was proud to report afterwards that the results were very close indeed to his poll.