ANALYSIS: More than half of the Government’s 36 items on its quarterly plan could be easy ticks or mere formalities. But we might still get a much clearer idea of how the Government wants to shape New Zealand by the time the quarterly clock winds up - on June 30.
Christopher Luxon’s ‘action plan’ for next quarter - the easy ticks and potential game-changers
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And then there’s “raise the energy” in international engagements. This could be ticked by having an extra coffee on the morning of such engagements.
But there’s also a lot among the items that will - hopefully - put some detail on how the Government plans to arrive at certain destinations: a health system that’s not on its knees; a bedrock for which educational achievement might improve; whether the Government’s housing solution involving council planning might see a better outcome than if National had kept standing with Labour on urban housing intensification.
Of course, a lot of what the Government can do in the next two and a half years depends on the management of the books, and we won’t know where the spending and cutting priorities lie until the May 30 Budget.
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By the end of June, then, when the Budget will be well and truly delivered and this action plan reaches its finish line, the public should have a much better idea of where the Government is heading.
And how it intends to get there.
Easy ticks
Deliver a budget that reduces wasteful spending while investing in frontline services like health, education and police. Delivering the Budget is the easy part. Hundreds if not thousands of job cuts are already in train, and putting money into health, education and the police is necessary just to keep those services afloat.
The big questions - which won’t be answered until May 30 - are whether the tax cuts will be any different from what National promised on the election campaign, and whether they might be inflationary.
There’ll also be interest in what does and does not get money, given how little there is to go around.
Legislate for personal income tax relief. This always follows the Budget to implement the Government’s tax cuts.
Legislate to introduce the FamilyBoost childcare tax credit. Already announced, though a bill enabling it is yet to be seen.
Finalise the Government Policy Statement on Land Transport, freezing fuel tax until the end of 2026 and delivering significant investment for transport. Consultation on the draft GPS, which will hit drivers in their wallets, finishes today (get in quick if you want to have your say and haven’t already). This puts a deadline on finalising it by the end of June.
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Introduce legislation to improve the rental market. This may be a reference to the National-Act agreement for a return of no-cause evictions, shortening tenant-landlord and landlord-tenant notice periods, and making it easier for tenants to have pets in rental properties.
Progress legislation to improve rehabilitation, reintegration and safety outcomes in the corrections system, including by extending eligibility to offence-based rehabilitation programmes to remand prisoners. The bill enabling this is already before the justice select committee, so this should be ticked off via the normal process of parliamentary events.
Raise the energy New Zealand brings to key relationships through international engagements, focussing on our traditional partners, the Pacific, and South East and South Asia. What’s the energy yardstick? If it’s post-election, then the bar might already be too high; Foreign Minister Winston Peters has already set a blazing pace with his meetings with overseas counterparts. He continues that this week with visits to Egypt and Europe. It should also be noted that Luxon plans to visit China in coming months.
Initiate the first regulatory sector review. Regulations Minister, Act leader David Seymour, has strongly suggested that the first cab off the the rank will be early childhood education. (Seymour is also Associate Education Minister.)
Establish a Regional Infrastructure Fund. Part of the National-NZ First coalition agreement. It will have $1.2 billion in capital funding over the Parliamentary term. Will Regional Development Minister Shane Jones have all the say about how it gets spent, or will there be other thresholds to meet?
Commence an independent review of the methane science and targets for consistency with no additional warming from agricultural methane emissions. Part of the National-Act agreement.
Commission a study into New Zealand’s fuel security, including investigating the feasibility of reopening the Marsden Point Oil Refinery. Part of the National-NZ First agreement, and something Shane Jones has already announced.
Introduce legislation to suspend the requirement on councils to identify and adopt new Significant Natural Areas. Already announced by Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard, though he had to backtrack after telling councils not to bother continuing to map SNAs. He later said he didn’t mean to imply that the rules had already changed.
Launch a review of the firearms registry. Part of the National-Act agreement, to have begun by June. How useful it will be is another question, given there is still a grace period for firearms owners to register their firearms, and the full benefits of a registry wouldn’t come until after it has been fully populated.
Take decisions on the removal of the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration. Repealing the ban is part of the National-Act agreement.
Take decisions on the repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. Also part of the National-Act agreement, which says the section will be removed. The section outlines the chief executive’s duties under the Treaty of Waitangi, and is seen as a way of ensuring an uplifted child can remain within their wider whanau.
Introduce legislation to reintroduce charter schools. Part of the National-Act agreement.
Take decisions to disestablish Te Pukenga and consult on a proposed replacement model. Some decisions have already been taken, and consultation is not a hard tick. What the replacement might look like is a big issue, but “taking decisions” won’t necessarily shed any light on this.
Take action to strengthen teacher training, including refocusing Professional Learning and Development for teachers on numeracy, literacy and assessment. National’s education policy pre-election, though it has seen some pushback from teachers on National’s claim that current teacher training is woeful. Taking action is a metric that can be met simply by asking officials for advice, as shown in the 100-day plan.
Take action to develop standardised assessment and regular reporting to parents. Part of the National-NZ First agreement, and the same easily-achieved metric.
Potentially substantive
Respond to the independent review of Kainga Ora’s financial situation, procurement, and asset management. Following Sir Bill English’s review, this will likely lead to an overhaul at Kainga Ora, with flow-on impacts on the social housing sector.
Take decisions on measures to increase investment in renewable electricity generation. The Government wants to double New Zealand’s renewable electricity but how that will be funded in a fiscal environment with nothing but deficits in coming years remains to be seen. Maybe tax credits will be part of the mix?
Introduce legislation to amend the RMA to clarify application of National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management in relation to individual consents for freshwater and to extend marine farm consent. Replacing this NPS was one of the first things the new Government did, despite a backlash from 50 freshwater experts warning not to replace the bottom-line standards for freshwater lakes and rivers, many of which are unswimmable.
Councils no longer have to draw up their freshwater plans by the end of next year, while the Government says replacing the NPS will take between 18 and 24 months. In the meantime, this might be clarifying how replacing the NPS will affect individual or marine farm consents.
Take decisions to implement the Going for Housing Growth plan while making the MDRS optional for councils. This could be a biggie, depending on what those decisions are. Councils that zone for 30 years of housing growth will be able to opt out of the Medium Density Residential Standards (MDRS) - which would have forced councils to allow for denser housing.
Major questions are yet to be answered: What exactly does “30 years of growth” mean, who says whether councils’ plans stand up to scrutiny, and how will they be enforced? If some of that growth is for areas where there’s a lack of infrastructure - roads, public transport, waterworks - does the 30-year plan have to include infrastructure funding?
Take decisions to tighten controls on youth vaping. Cabinet has already agreed to ban disposable vapes, (as the previous government had already planned to do) and increase fines ten-fold for sales to under-18s.
The decisions to be made here might be about tightening the licencing regime. Should a store require a liquor licence to sell vapes, which is something that National promised Act would be looked at? And whatever happened to Luxon’s support - expressed in the second leaders’ debate during the election campaign - for Labour’s election policy to restrict the number of vaping outlets to 600, more than half the current number?
Take decisions on the scope of the extension to the Covid-19 inquiry. This follows more than 11,000 submissions on the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Covid-19 Lessons. The terms of reference will be widened as a result, a commitment made in the National-Act agreement. It’s unclear whether this will also satisfy the National-NZ First commitment for “a full scale, wide-ranging, independent inquiry”, or whether a separate inquiry will be needed.
Finalise policy to keep agriculture out of the ETS. Pre-election, National wanted to keep agriculture out of the Emissions Trading Scheme, even though the sector is responsible for nearly half of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions. Instead National said it would implement a “fair and sustainable pricing system” for on-farm agricultural emissions by 2030 at the latest. But what would that pricing system look like?
Take decisions to restore Three Strikes. It will be a different beast from the previous iteration because it will include incentives to plead guilty, in order to help keep the court system from being overly clogged.
Set targets for improving public service outcomes. These will be across government departments and cover several sectors including education, crime, and welfare - with a longer-term view. Luxon says they are important to focus the public service and ministers, and to provoke discussions at Cabinet committees about the root cause of societal problems.
The more substantive
Release draft plan to ease restrictions on building materials from overseas for public consultation. This has been signalled as part of the fight to lower building costs, but we haven’t seen any details; the cost of building work consented per square metre for a standalone house in 2022 was $2591, compared to $1743 in Australia. Opening up the market to more overseas materials would mean New Zealand could avoid being hamstrung by shortages, such as the Gib shortage which came to a head in 2022.
Reform the CCCFA regime to improve access to credit for home buyers. Part of the National-Act agreement. The key is to make borrowing accessible enough without overly exposing people to predatory loan sharks. The fact this law has been checked and changed over the years suggests the right balance isn’t always easy to find.
Take decisions on reform of the Holidays Act. Signalled by Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden a month ago, she said the laws would be changed with a focus on contractors and the gig economy workers.
Take decisions on establishing a Youth Serious Offender Category and making Youth Military Academies a standalone sentencing option for the Youth Court. This was a National Party policy pre-election, aimed at turning wayward young lives around, though it was criticised as being too punitive. Those who qualified for the category could be sent to a boot camp, which will be running by mid-year.
Launch an Attendance Action Plan and introduce the first phase of initiatives to lift school attendance. Part of this might be centrally collecting and publishing attendance data, a commitment in the National-Act agreement.
Take decisions on the rollout of structured literacy for year 1-3 students, including a phonics check. National’s education policy pre-election.
Issue a new Government Policy Statement on Health, setting the government’s priorities for the health system for the next three years. The health system is in crisis with worker shortages across the sector and infrastructure in a poor state. The GPS will outline how the Government plans to keep the system from falling over.
Take decisions to streamline the Medsafe approval process. The National-NZ First agreement requires Medsafe to “approve new pharmaceuticals within 30 days of them being approved by at least two overseas regulatory agencies recognised by New Zealand”.
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.
