Thomas Coughlan wraps up the big changes in Labour leadership this week.
OPINION
Incoming Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is riding a wave of optimism that carries new leaders through the first weeks and months of their tenure. It is a crucial space, not only to appoint his team, but also to set the tone of his leadership.
A week ago, Labour waslooking at a tough slog to get a third term: behind in the polls; and NZ First coming back from the grave. Despite the international acclaim for both the Government’s handling of Covid in this country, and Jacinda Ardern’s leadership focus on wellbeing and kindness in navigating multiple challenges, by the end of a very grumpy 2022, “Jacindamania” seemed a distant memory.
Then Jacinda resigned. It was Election Day minus nine months.
Labour faced the horror prospect of its historic 2020 election mandate turning into the first two-term Government since Lange/Douglas in 1990.
Even with Grant Robertson deciding not to stand, there was a need for continuity and experience. Snap polling by both sides showed Chris Hipkins as the only candidate to advance Labour’s chances a few notches up, not down. And a disciplined caucus process has made the transition silky smooth and fast. The tough, determined, straight-talking “Boy from the Hutt” is the man for the job.
Supported by Carmel Sepuloni as his Deputy PM (a Pasifika first) and Grant Robertson, remaining in Finance, Labour now has a senior line-up that has the advantage of looking refreshed, while being battle-hardened.
Labour leader David Cunliffe, flanked by whips Carmel Sepuloni and Chris Hipkins, in September 2014. Photo / Mark Mitchell
At his press conference, Chris Hipkins has been quick to signal he will be shifting Labour to a more “pragmatic” approach. He knows this is an opportunity to renew and to self-correct on those issues that have become publicly hard to swallow.
His language is clear - and very different to that of his friend and former boss Jacinda Ardern. His focus is on “the here and now” and “the bread and butter issues that people care about”.
Expect him to clear the decks of electoral liabilities, fast. Three Waters will be off the table. Likely also, speed limit reductions and the TVNZ/RNZ merger. Less provocative reforms (health, possibly Resource Management Act) may continue but without fanfare.
Expect less of a focus on “kindness” and more straight-talking toughness. Expect a laser focus on low and middle income families and “hip pocket” issues. It will be small-target, middle-of-the-road politics, driven at pace and executed at speed. Expect less vision and more execution: more delivery, or “don’t come Monday”.
His Cabinet reshuffle is but a week away - lightning speed by Beehive standards - and it will be far-reaching while treading a careful path between the Māori and Pasifika caucuses and the aspirations of successive generations of Labour MPs.
The incoming Prime Minister knows he is working against the currents of timing and time. Being Prime Minister is not a development opportunity. This is his moment. There are no second chances.
Even with the momentum of a fresh face and approach, any politician taking over the reins of a major political party less than 12 months out from an election has a Herculean task: the relentlessness of having to perform 24/7, while also trying to get your party match fit, keep the country running, and manage a caucus who, while they have been admirably disciplined to this point, could become more wobbly nearer to October if they face the prospect of losing their jobs.
Looking back over the past 40 years - Mike Moore, Jenny Shipley, myself, Bill English - all faced a crunch between the size of the political task and the time and resources available. Jacinda Ardern, in her indomitable way, was the only leader to dodge the curse of taking over major party leadership within 12 months of an election - and win. And she did it with a strong focus on vision and values.
Therefore, pragmatism has limits: the very forces that drove the need for a transformative government in the first place have not gone away. Around the globe, climate change is an urgent, catastrophic priority. Here at home, the inequalities have only grown with the pandemic, global economic pressures, and international instability.
These are all systemic issues that matter to the Labour base - and to prospective Labour voters. How Labour balances pragmatism with vision and values is therefore going to be crucial. Chris Hipkins recognised that when he signalled at his press conference: “We don’t need a change of heart, we need to apply the heart to the things that matter most to Kiwis”.
October 14 will show whether the electorate believes Labour have got the balance right.
* David Cunliffe was the leader of the Labour Party from September 2013 until the September 2014 general election.
