Political polls: Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ and Labour’s popularity soar

New Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has given Labour an early boost in the polls, rising by five points in the 1News Kantar Public poll to 38 per cent and overtaking National - just.

Another poll from Newshub-Reid Research has also shown Hipkins’ popularity with the public growing, with Labour rising nearly six percentage points to 38 per cent and National dropping 4.1 points to 36.6 per cent.

In the 1News Kantar Public poll, Hipkins has also gone straight from zero to 23 per cent as preferred PM - while Jacinda Ardern has plummeted immediately to just five per cent. Luxon had dropped slightly to 22 per cent as preferred PM.

That puts National and Labour - and Hipkins and Luxon - at almost level pegging in the poll.

“While I am encouraged by the poll results, we’ve still got a lot of work ahead of us,” Hipkins told 1News.

Labour was on 38 per cent – up five points since the end of last November - while National had dropped one to 37 per cent.

Act was on 10 per cent (down 1), the Green Party on 7 per cent (down 2) and NZ First had dropped back to 2 per cent (down 2). Te Pāti Māori was on 1 per cent.

The National Party/Act bloc would get 60 seats in Parliament and Labour and the Greens 58 seats, while the Māori Party would have two. That could result in a hung Parliament if Te Pāti Māori sided with Labour.

And there was a new face in the preferred Prime Minister rankings: Labour’s Kiri Allan came in at 1 per cent.

The 1News Kantar Public poll of 1000 eligible voters was taken from last Wednesday, when Hipkins was sworn in as PM, until Sunday night after the Auckland floods. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent.

Hipkins also got a high approval rating in his debut - 46 per cent said they approved of the way he was doing the job while only 10 per cent disapproved: a net approval rating of +36.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins got a high approval rating in his debut. Photo / Mark Mitchell

However, a large 45 per cent said they did not yet know or were unsure.

Luxon’s net approval rating was +9 - 43 per cent approved, 34 per cent disapproved and 23 per cent did not know.

Speaking to Newstalk ZB, Luxon said the boost for Hipkins was not unexpected.

“New leaders always get a bump and we’ve seen that in the past and particularly when you hold the office of the Prime Minister, it’s even more so.”

National leader Christopher Luxon. Photo / Alex Burton

He rebuffed any suggestion he was disappointed or concerned by the polling, saying his party wouldn’t get “too agitated” over the results.

Luxon considered it a “bit disingenuous” for Hipkins to promote his focus on the economy when he had been a senior minister in a Government currently presiding over a cost of living crisis.

Act’s David Seymour told 1News that Hipkins was more of the same for Labour. while Greens co-leader Marama Davidson said she had anticipated the boost for Hipkins.

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi promised there would not be a hung Parliament and his party would be deciding who would be the next Government.

In the Newshub Reid-Research poll, the Green Party was on 8.8 per cent, down 1.4 points. Act was up 0.7 points to 10.7 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori was relatively steady on 1.8 per cent and New Zealand First had dropped 1.1 points to 2.2 per cent. The Opportunities Party was up 0.3 points to 1.5 per cent.

On those results, National would get 46 seats and Act 14. Labour would receive 48 seats, the Greens 10 and if Te Pāti Māori went left, they could contribute their two seats. This would mean both blocs sit on 60 seats each, resulting in a hung Parliament.

The poll was taken from Sunday, January 22, the day Hipkins was confirmed as the new Labour leader and incoming Prime Minister, until Friday night.

Hipkins topped the preferred Prime Minister stakes, debuting at 19.6 per cent, while Luxon dropped 2.7 points to 18.8 per cent.

Jacinda Ardern was on 29.9 per cent in the last poll, and Luxon 21.5 per cent.

Asked if they trusted the main party leaders, 52.9 per cent of respondents said they trusted Hipkins while 26.9 per cent said no.

For Luxon meanwhile, just 36.9 per cent trusted him, while 43.8 per cent said they did not.

Hipkins told Newshub he was “encouraged by the early signs of support”.

He said he was “in it to win it”, but focused on providing leadership to the country until the election.

Act leader David Seymour said it would be a “fun election”.

“You’ve got Chris versus Chris. Chris-cross, Chris-cross.”

Luxon said the results were “not unexpected” with new leaders often getting a “bounce” in the polls. He said it was a long way to go until the election.

The polls come as Hipkins prepares to announce further Government support for Aucklanders hit by flooding damage after Cabinet meets on Tuesday, as well as his re-shuffle.

The most recent editions from both polling outfits indicated National and Act could govern together, with Labour falling behind.

The 1News Kantar Public poll, published on December 5, found National was on 38 per cent, up 1 percentage point, and Labour was on 33 per cent, down 1 point.

Act was on 11 per cent, up 2 points. The Green Party was steady on 9 per cent.

On those numbers, National would have 49 seats and Act having 15 - satisfying the 61 seats needed to form a Government.

The Newshub-Reid Research poll, published on November 6, had National on 40.7 per cent, down 0.2 points, and Labour on 32.3 per cent, down 5.9 points and its lowest result since Ardern became Labour leader in 2017.

Act was on 10 per cent, up 3.6 points, with the Greens on 9.5 percent, up 1.1 points.

After visiting Auckland on Saturday, Hipkins spent Sunday and Monday working on his reshuffle and in talks to assess what Government support should go to Auckland businesses and people and how to deliver it.

The damage from Friday's storm is evident across many Auckland suburbs. Photo / Alex Burton

A spokesperson for Hipkins recently said Auckland’s flooding could delay the reshuffle announcement, but it was expected the Prime Minister would discuss it in his post-Cabinet press conference on Tuesday.

It followed a meeting between Finance Minister Grant Robertson, Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash, Mayor Wayne Brown and Auckland Business Chamber chief executive Simon Bridges on Sunday.

Afterwards, Bridges tweeted that financial help for businesses impacted by the floods was discussed, and it was clear that a Mayoral Relief Fund would be the vehicle to deliver it.

He said it would allow the flexibility needed to respond - and that the main challenges businesses faced were weather damage, insurance claims and loss of income. He said the demand on tradespeople would make it difficult for many to get repairs done quickly.

He said it was not just a problem for the Government to resolve but also insurance companies and banks.