Most New Zealanders have witnessed vandalism, vehicle theft and burglaries in the past year, while four out of nine have seen or heard gangs in their neighbourhood.
The insights are captured in a new Ipsos poll, shared exclusively with the Herald, that sampled 23,800 adults across 31 countries- including about 1000 in New Zealand - about the year to March-April 2024.
Perceptions of crime in New Zealand are consistent with those around the world, according to the survey: 31% both here and overseas say crime has increased in their community in the past year, while 23% of Kiwis (24% is the global average) say reducing crime should be the Government’s main priority.
There were only two other options for what the main priority should be: 46% chose creating jobs and boosting the economy (below the global average of 50%), while 31% said protecting local citizens’ health and environment.
What makes the Ipsos survey unique are the questions about having witnessed particular crimes in the neighbourhood over the past 12 months: vehicle theft topped the list with 61%, followed by burglaries (57%) and vandalism (56%).
Violence against women (30%), men (30%), or children (26%) was less common, while 44% of those polled said they had seen or heard gangs.
Vehicle theft has risen dramatically in recent years, according to the NZ Crime and Victims Survey (NZCVS), which showed 3% of households experiencing this offence in 2023, double the proportion (1.5%) in 2018.
On what drives crime, 62% said poverty and unemployment, 58% said drug and alcohol abuse, 36% said ineffective law enforcement, 34% said a “breakdown of traditional values”, 30% said a lack of education, and 15% (almost half the global average) said a corrupt political environment.
“The majority of New Zealanders, and higher than the global average, believe that poverty, unemployment, drug and alcohol abuse are the top causes of crime in their neighbourhood and are significantly less likely to see ineffective policing as a cause of crime,” Ipsos NZ managing director Carin Hercock said.
“Interestingly it is the ‘Baby Boomer’ and ‘Gen X’ generations who are more likely to see the breakdown of social values as a major cause.”
The Ipsos poll also asked about confidence in police.
A majority were either somewhat or very confident police would treat all citizens with the same level of respect (60%), find the right criminal after a crime (59%), and stop violent crimes from happening (50%), but this dipped into a minority for stopping non-violent crimes such as burglaries, thefts or fraud (44%).
The survey also found that law and order was consistently the second most important issue to voters behind the cost of living, which aligns with what politicians have said about their experience on the hustings during the election campaign.
The Government is hoping gangs become less visible after the enactment of its anti-gang legislation, which would give police the power to disperse groups of gang members.
Those given dispersal notices would have to leave a public place and not associate in public for seven days, although the threshold for giving such notices is highly subjective: a constable’s belief that a notice is “necessary to avoid disrupting the activities of other members of the public”.
Whether this power alongside non-consorting orders and banning gang patches in public will improve public safety has been highly contentious, with Ministry of Justice officials saying these provisions could make the gang situation worse.
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has defended the proposals, saying they were campaigned on and he disagreed with his officials’ assessment.
He has also witnessed crime in his neighbourhood recently, telling the justice select committee last month: “I have gone into supermarket and encountered somebody with a whole bunch of stuff they’ve stolen, which I’ve never encountered before in my life, but I’ve seen it a couple of times in the last couple of years.”
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.