Campaign Diary: 18 days to go

Nats support dives, Labour up

Poll-axed National crashed to a miserable 28 per cent in last night's TV3-CM Research poll. Labour climbed to 41 per cent. The Alliance is on 7 per cent, Act on 10 per cent and New Zealand First has 6 per cent. Barely a week ago, the poll gap between Labour and National was narrowing drastically. Confused? The lurching polls are prompting much head-scratching among the pundits. Has National lost its post-Apec glow as the campaign gets down to the nitty-gritty of domestic issues? Is Labour benefiting from Jim Anderton being Mr Helpful? Was it the rugby? All polls to date have one consistent feature. National is having an awful job getting its rating above 35 per cent. That's not good enough. And Act is cannibalising National's vote, rather than adding to it. National has lost another crutch. It can no longer pin its hopes on wangling a post-election deal out of Winston Peters. He now says he'll simply support the party with the most votes. That looks like being Labour. But before we get carried away, remember what Jim Bolger said about the pollsters...

Full credit to the alarm clock

Jenny Shipley did not stint in putting in the hard yards this morning, getting up before dawn to provide the returning All Blacks (well, most of them) with a shoulder to weep on. She always said she'd be there, win or lose. She had little choice. Marking her at Auckland Airport was politics' equivalent of the crash-tackler, Labour's Trevor Mallard. He would have highlighted her absence.

What they said

* "No one wants us anyway. You can't win. They don't want us in Government. They don't want us on the crossbenches. No-one wants us to exist." - NZ First's Tu Wyllie feels lonely defending his party's shifting stance on post-election deals.

* "We made our bed and, for the time being, we must sleep in it." - Simon Upton on the twin discomforts of MMP and Winston Peters

* "Winston Peters is like a snake-oil merchant. He refuses to tell New Zealanders what he is really trying to sell them." - Labour's Michael Cullen gets personal.

Where they'll be today

Helen Clark is in Hamilton; Jim Anderton is in Hawkes Bay; Richard Prebble campaigns on the West Coast; Jenny Shipley and Winston Peters will be at Addington for the New Zealand Trotting Cup.

- compiled by John Armstrong