Bryce Edwards: Andrew Little on track to be Labour leader

The dark horse now appears to be the frontrunner in Labour's leadership race. Andrew Little has huge momentum at the moment, judging by what's being reported in the media and discussed in leftwing circles. What had previously been seen as a battle between Grant Robertson and David Cunliffe - with Robertson the favourite - has now shifted significantly, and the newcomer appears to be on track to win. For today's best analysis of Little's increasing claim to the leadership title, see Tracy Watkins' column, Wild card could trump favourites. She argues that although Little hasn't previously been seen as an obvious choice, he is now outshining Robertson and Cunliffe through proposing more substantial change to the party, as well as unifying the divisions associated with the other contenders. Watkins says 'Little has breathed fresh life into a leadership race that had previously dwelt on personalities, finger pointing and recrimination'.

ABCGs: Anyone But Cunliffe and Grant

Little's strength is his ability to appeal to the rise of the ABCGs ('Anyone But Cunliffe and Grant') club - those in caucus, the wider party, and the unions who view the previous favourites as too disliked or problematic. Against these established, staider and divisive leadership options, Little appears to be a fresh choice for a party needing radical rejuvination. As Watkins argues, 'While his rivals Cunliffe and Robertson slug it out in one of the bitterest battles for control of Labour seen in years, Little is largely untarnished by the infighting and naked rivalry that has marked Labour's years in Opposition'.

This point is well put by Labour Party activist Will Matthews: 'If a lot of people are getting sick of the sniping between Robertson and Cunliffe then this could turn out in Little's favour. In that case, Little would need to present himself as an alternative to Cunliffe. He's got the left wing credentials and possibly the union backing, but will be entering the race with none of the dirt attached to him that David Cunliffe had dredged up through his controversial actions in undermining Phil Goff and David Shearer' - see: Option C. In this interesting account, Matthews also discusses the so-called 'Anyone But Grant/Cunliffe faction' and speculates about which MPs might be in it.

Also in the blogosphere, another (senior) insider in Labour puts the case for Little on The Standard in the post A Little Goes A Long Way: 'He would be a great choice. He's left, he's already identified some of the reasons for Labour's disconnect with the voters, and he's prepared to make the big calls... he can connect with working people. He knows their issues and he knows the solutions. He is a proven leader and has a history of working with different factions to bring unity... He has a sharp mind, terrific debating ability and goes into the leadership campaign free of sectarian baggage. And according to his facebook page he likes The Clash, the Smiths and Woody Guthrie'. The anonymous insider also says that 'in caucus, he will get the votes of those not closely aligned with the other candidates. And possibly the ABCers if they tactically vote to keep DC out. If he runs, I believe he will win. A fresh start, a fresh face'.

Political commentators are also expressing Little's strengths and likely success. I made the call on Sunday's Q+A programme that he was likely to win - see the 10-minute item, The panel discuss the political future of Andrew Little and Hone Hawawira (9:41).

John Armstrong perhaps makes the strongest case for Little to be leader, saying that 'Of the three candidates, Little is more likely to connect with the voting public because his analysis of Labour's dire election result has been far more frank than the other contenders' - see: Little selling himself as Labour's unifier. Armstrong also stresses the unifying abilities of Little compared to Cunliffe and Robertson. He says that a Little win would 'represent a clean break from the party's very recent and ugly past' and would provide 'a route around the current impasse between Labour's parliamentary wing and the rank-and-file membership'.

The NBR's Rob Hosking seems to have come out with Little as his pick for leader. He has detailed the problems of both Robertson and Cunliffe, saying they 'both come with some very large negatives' - in his column, Labour leadership: Dream a Little Dream (paywalled). In contrast, according to Hosking, Little appears to be 'the only grown up in the room' and that Labour would be 'sensible' to elect him. He argues that Labour lacks the ability to 'reach out beyond the narrow political laager in which it has entrenched itself', but that Little is the most able to achieve that. Little is also praised for showing 'an ability to think outside that ideological laager and to challenge some of the assumptions of his colleagues'.

In contrast to Little, Hosking says that Grant Robertson is essentially 'beltway' and his election 'would entrench Labour's endemic problem: it is increasingly the party of state sector-employed theoreticians who talk in bureaucratese and whose attempts to come over as ordinary Kiwis appear false and contrived. (examples: the talk of rugby and "smoko rooms")'. Similarly, Hosking says that the election of Cunliffe 'would perpetuate the divisions of an already bitterly riven and almost unmanageable party'.

Cunliffe's decline was also heralded this week by his much-criticised camera opportunity - watch Adam Hollingsworth's 2-minute TV3 report, Cunliffe plays for leadership vote in south Auckland.

The candidate of change and tradition?

Part of Andrew Little's appeal is his apparent focus on bringing substantive change to the Labour Party. As Tracy Watkins says today, 'He has cleverly played on that by positioning himself as the candidate for change. Little wasted no time yesterday drawing a picture of the scale and breadth of that change - up for review are contentious policies'. Part of this pitch for change involves re-assessing some of the central policies that Labour fought the 2014 election campaign on.

There's also a sense in which Little might take Labour back towards a more traditional path, focused on more traditional leftwing concerns about economics and inequality. The more modern social liberal concerns, or even 'identity politics' might be less emphasised by a Little-led Labour Party. For example, Bernard Hickey reports that, 'Asked if Labour had focused too much on identity politics and sectional interests, Little said Labour needed to focus on good, secure jobs with a strong economy. "What people want now at a time when there is still global uncertainty, economically and otherwise, people want to know they've got a Government focused on their economic security -- that's got to be the priority."' - see: Former union leader and list MP Andrew Little says he will run for Labour leadership.

This is in line with some of the recommendations of Labour Party commentator, Josie Pagani, who makes some interesting points about the leadership contest today - see Alex Mason's Labour leader must deliver vital reforms, says commentator. She says that 'Andrew Little has been talking this week about a return to a focus on jobs, higher wages; making people better off. So a return to a message about social mobility, instead of social engineering; making you better off rather than making you a better person'. She also suggests that the Labour leadership contest is now involving a necessary 'contest of ideas' instead of merely a 'contest of personalities'. Listen also to her 4-minute Radio NZ interview: Commentators wade in on Andrew Little's bid for Labour leadership.

Some other interesting points are made today by Rachel Smalley in her column, Labour leadership now a three-horse race. Here's her key point: 'Little's message, it seems, is that he is the man to roll up his sleeves and overhaul the party. I certainly think he has appeal. He will appeal to the 'down the mines' Labour voter. He's a man's man. By that I don't mean he won't appeal to women - I suspect he will. But I think Little will attract support from those who believe Grant Robertson is too Wellington and too beltway and those who think David Cunliffe fails to connect with people and lacks humility. It is those people who will look at Andrew Little as a very real option'. See also, Barry Soper's Little wants to be the saviour of Labour.

It now seems that the Labour leadership contest is collapsing into a two-person battle between Robertson and Little. There's some sign of this in the stock trading occuring on the iPredict website, which currently has Little way ahead in the forecast for winners. Little is currently given a 52% versus Robertson on 39%.

Finally, although Little is widely viewed to be somewhat dour and non-charismatic, he's not entirely without colour , as can be seen in the 27-second video of Andrew Little - Gangnam Style Government