KEY POINTS:
Outcast National MP Brian Connell appears set to be left high and dry by proposed changes to electoral boundaries to be announced tomorrow.
In a change which could spur the final parting of Mr Connell from his party, the Rakaia seat he holds is in for significant change as electorate boundaries are redrawn for next year's election.
It is understood that due to population changes, the upper boundary of the Aoraki seat now held by National's Jo Goodhew will move north, and swallow up a chunk of Mr Connell's Rakaia seat.
The shift means that the seat north of Aoraki will stretch up and take on more of an urban feel, and Mr Connell is unlikely to be seen as having an automatic claim to it.
Mr Connell was yesterday unsure what was in the wind, but said he had heard speculation about what would happen to his seat, which he won for the first time in 2002.
He would be disappointed if he was squeezed out.
"I'm into my fifth year in that electorate, it's a pretty good electorate with lots of fine people and lots of memories." he said. "So of course it hurts a bit."
Mr Connell, 50, remains suspended from National's caucus, a position he has been in since last September when his colleagues voted to eject him.
The vote came shortly after Mr Connell confronted then leader Don Brash in caucus about allegations he was having an affair, claiming that if it were true he was no longer fit to lead the party.
The Rakaia MP may have hoped for a change in his circumstances when John Key took over as leader, but that has not proven to be the case and Mr Connell remains on the outer as a reminder of what happens when an MP breaks ranks.
He may have struggled to win the race to be National's candidate for Rakaia at the next election anyway, but the change in boundaries is likely to make his task even harder because he could face competition from other sitting National MPs.
Another area understood to be in for change is South Auckland.
The boundaries of the general and Maori seats are redrawn after each Census and Maori Electoral Option.
Population changes can mean seats are significantly altered, but under the law the South Island must always have 16 seats.
It has already been announced that population changes mean one additional general electorate will be created, and the number of list seats will reduce from 51 to 50.
Boundaries are decided by the Representation Commission, a group chaired by Judge Bernard Kendall and containing Government representative David Caygill as well as Opposition delegate Roger Sowry.
The public can object to the proposed boundaries and new electorate names by making submissions, and public hearings will be held in July.
