National has enjoyed amazing polls, partly attributable to the mishmash of Opposition parties' gaffes and misfortunes. And to the extent our system is increasingly presidential, the Government is blessed with the most popular leader in New Zealand history, this set against the two main Opposition parties' respective leaders' decided unpopularity.
I'm treating Russel Norman as the de facto Greens leader, his nominal co-leader simply ticking two typically Greens imagery boxes, being female and Maori. Nevertheless, gaining a third term will be tough, a point I made in this column two years ago and echoed by Bill English a week ago. Under the old first-past-the-post system National would romp home, but MMP neutralises such clear-cut outcomes.
We're now witnessing an age-old media phenomenon. Bored with irrelevant sideshows such as Dotcom and the Conservatives, the media are turning on the Government by grabbing at mishaps and exaggerating their significance. This is worldwide behaviour, not just with politics but sport, literature or whatever, namely to over-cook building someone up, then packhunt them down, often over trivia.
In fairness, this isn't so much media but human behaviour, which is why John Key's run is so remarkable. Is this the end for National some commentators wrote, forgetting they'd written the same a week earlier, only about Labour following Shane Jones' departure. But talk about molehills and mountains, upholding its recent years' practice of farcical front pages, last Monday's Dominion Post's lead story took the cake.
With no byline - its author presumably too ashamed to put his or her name to it - it began: "Pressure is mounting on embattled Justice Minister Judith Collins to resign after she lashed out at a political journalist ..."