Boundary changes mean the Bay of Plenty electorate has encroached further on New Zealand First's urban Tauranga stronghold while surrendering chunks of largely rural territory in the east.
But National MP Tony Ryall has little to fear, despite losing some core support (potentially more than 1000 votes) with the transfer of Whakatane to the East Coast seat.
He already has a secure foothold in the Western Bay of Plenty, where most of the electorate's voters now live. This time the four-term MP adds Arataki, Bayfair and Waimapu to the Tauranga suburbs in his patch.
Urban rather than rural problems are foremost in this campaign, particularly congested roads and lack of community facilities. Growth in the Western Bay of Plenty has also put pressure on schools, healthcare facilities and police.
Cushioned by a 1999 majority of 7102, Ryall is not under threat from seven challengers. The more interesting contest will be between Labour's Mei Taare, a former Hamilton regional television news presenter, and NZ First's conscientious, behind-the-scenes list MP Peter Brown for second place.
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