Audrey Young: The signs that Jacinda Ardern had a big decision to make over summer

If we’d known then what we know now, some of us might have recognised the signs that Jacinda Ardern was getting ready to step down.

If only I’d listened to myself more closely. Three months ago, in my most recent Cabinet report card, it was clear things were not right with Ardern and she had lost her purpose.

“While Ardern is clearly the most valuable person to the Government, she is in an uncertain phase of leadership,” I wrote. “She is a little like an empty-nester, only it’s Covid that has gone and she has to rediscover her role without it.”

And in the report card ratings, in which she was given 7 out of 10, my comments were even more apt, such as “drifting,” “needs new political impetus” and “could show more oomph outside the House.”

Unfortunately, I added: “Too loyal and valuable to Labour to be bailing out early,” a position which had been reinforced repeatedly by Ardern herself in public comments.

But in fairness to Ardern, like a Prime Minister having to express confidence in a minister right up until the moment it vanishes, her commitment to the role had to be expressed in terms of absolute commitment - right up until the moment it vanished. There is no halfway house on these things.

Little did we know that when Ardern escaped to Tairua on the Coromandel in January, she recognised she had lost something: The motivation to carry on.

In many ways, the bigger clues were in plain sight and suggest it has been in Ardern’s thinking for some time.

The first was the change in rules in 2021 to allow a change in leadership by the Labour caucus without the rigmarole of a roadshow involving the membership and the union affiliates.

At the time, Ardern played down her involvement in the rule change, suggesting it was the idea of the New Zealand Council, but it would not have happened without Ardern’s promotion of it.

Unless she got that passed - allowing the caucus to elect a new leader with a two-thirds majority - the only way she could relinquish the leadership without the circus of a roadshow would have been within three months of the election.

Of course, the new rule was a sensible compromise between the old system of caucus-only elections and the circus option, so it made sense to have it whether or not it was invoked.

Ardern may not have decided in 2021 to resign in 2023 but she needed to have the rules in place to give her the option.

It is likely that she discussed the possibility with Robertson then, if not even earlier, of having a stocktake on her leadership. It is safe to assume Robertson has been given a long time to think about the leadership, and that makes it unlikely he will be dissuaded from ruling himself out of filling the breach.

Jacinda Ardern and Clarke Gayford with daughter Neve, arriving at the Queen's memorial service last year. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The other clue was the advancing age of her 4-year-old daughter, Neve. When the PM hosted the press gallery to Christmas drinks at Premier House in December, her partner Clarke Gayford was away filming a new television show but Neve was there. She was under Ardern’s watchful eye most of the time and as a wilful child, made her presence felt, negotiating with Ardern about the appropriate amount of strawberries vs chocolate to consume.

It was a small but clear reminder that kids are harder to manage than babies and that the gulf between the mother Ardern wanted to be and the mother she could be in such a job would grow.

Ardern herself hinted in her press conference yesterday that Gayford wanted her to stay but supported her decision. Presumably, he thought that the energy she could not muster for the job would be temporary once she returned to work.

She has denied that the vitriol of opponents and a prospect of leading Labour to defeat played any part in her decision. But they are impossible factors to measure and there are plenty of others making the case either way.

The intense and threatening behaviour of a few has changed the political environment.

Ardern told a small group of advisers of her decision this week before alerting the Cabinet at 7am yesterday but she is unlikely to have sought the advice of anyone besides Gayford and Robertson. When your job for the past five years has been to make the hard calls, you know instantly which should be shared or not.

It is possible that Chris Hipkins and Megan Woods knew Ardern was thinking of stepping down. They were part of Ardern’s inner-inner circle with whom she thrashed out potential landmines.

Auckland-based list MP Camilla Belich is tipped to seek selection for Mt Albert. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Former Labour president Claire Szabo is close to Ardern but was not in the loop. She has just moved from Auckland to Wellington and she is expected to stand as a list MP. Ardern clearly did not tell her that the safe seat of Mt Albert might be coming up. And that will now face a selection contest, with list MP Camilla Belich the likely front-runner.

Robertson has pledged to remain Finance Minister and in the volatile economic environment his importance in the party has increased.

Ardern explained her decision as though there were only one option - to have to commit herself for the next four years. But both she and Robertson had options.

She could have privately set herself another option, of delaying her leadership stocktake for another year. He could have stepped up to her job.

The fact that both eschewed those opportunities is a sign that politics has changed.

And unless you’ve got the purpose and the heart to do a relentlessly demanding job, it’s best to stand aside.