Illustration / Rod Emmerson
OPINION:
The biggest risk from the 2020 election result is that Labour's outright majority could deliver the most boring parliamentary term in recent memory.
That's possibly what people want. Nothing too crazy. No crises and some settled Government.
New Zealand politics in recent years has delivered high dramas be it the five leadership changes by Labour in opposition, the sudden resignation of a Prime Minister, the near implosion of the Green Party, the propulsion of Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister or the incredible shrinking National Party caucus.
The National Party takes the booby prize for worst performance not just this year but this decade - and some individuals deserve special mention. Nikki Kaye and Amy Adams until this year had been fine politicians and important liberal figures in their party.
But despite pledges of loyalty, they failed to accept the election of Simon Bridges as leader.
They undermined him by persuading their friend Todd Muller that he would be better than Bridges or Judith Collins, who was preparing to take over after the election.
When their plan failed spectacularly, they took the easy way out and joined the quitters instead of staying to help repair the damage.
At least Kaye apologised to the caucus for her role in National's demise as she accepted her silver tray and left the building.
Other coupsters continue to justify their miscalculations in the unwavering belief that Bridges would have done worse than Muller or Collins. Bridges made mistakes. He was not popular but he almost certainly would have done better than 25 per cent had discipline been maintained.
The wars in National are by no means over. Unity is skin-deep. The Government may well be boring but National will provide plenty of drama through their unresolved internal tensions.
It will also have many internal policy debates as it seeks to find a place between a centrist Labour Party and a bold Act Party to the right – the first challenge coming in February when the Climate Commission delivers it first carbon budget to the Government.
Act leader David Seymour is the comeback king of 2020, having increased his caucus 900 per cent. He could not have capitalised on National's demise without having steadily built his profile and reputation through the term.
Being something of a nerd, he modernised his leadership team with the addition of Brooke van Velden as deputy leader. He chose his battles carefully this year and was pitch-perfect in his critique of the Government's Covid-19 response.
National's main contribution to Covid-19 was to be about a week ahead of the Government in calling for things to happen, such as closing the border, for which it is still claiming pyrrhic vindication.
Megan Woods cemented her reputation as trouble-shooting minister when she took over the managed isolation and quarantine facilities.
But this was the year that Chris Hipkins made his mark as a super-minister, taking on Health as well as Education, to lift the performance of the health sector.
Covid-19 clearly changed everything. Ultimately it led to Labour's outright majority at the October election but it was not pre-ordained. If the response had been botched, it could have been a one-term Government.
Lockdown was a traumatic event as people's sense of security over their health and their livelihoods was shattered.
Few could have predicted the level of compliance from New Zealanders that helped to break the chains of transmission. Perhaps the grief that the country had experienced after the mosque massacre meant there was already a strong sense of collectivism that readily became a nationalistic effort.
There was definitely something happening to the national psyche that required careful handling.
Jacinda Ardern and Finance Minister Grant Robertson navigated through the health and economic crisis in a way that makes them the only choice for Politician of the Year, which they deserve jointly.
Neither Ardern nor Robertson could have done it quite so effectively without the other.
Ardern did more than just comfort and reassure the country every day at 1 pm. She was on top of every Covid-19 issue facing the Government and so was Robertson.
They had a zillion issues to deal with, they sought advice, they acted quickly, and then they explained it well.
They gained the confidence of the public and something that had previously eluded them: the confidence of business.
They always praised the team of five million, but leadership mattered most.
The strength of New Zealand's response and the New Zealand economy is being reinforced daily as we see the crisis continuing to grow for Britain, Europe and the United States.
Ardern and Robertson have long been the closest of political partners. She was his running mate when he unsuccessfully stood for the Labour leadership in 2014.
The partnership continued in 2017 when she became Labour leader and Prime Minister and he became Minister of Finance - and now Deputy Prime Minister.
They are joined at the hip politically and that also applies to their stewardship of the Labour Party.
The decision in April last year to rule out campaigning again on a capital gains tax was part of that stewardship.
If they had gone to this year's October election again campaigning for a capital gains tax, Labour would not have an outright majority.
It is a fact that few on Labour's left will thank them for but having the foresight to do that set them up for Labour's stunning 2020 victory of an outright majority.
They also set up the party for the next decade or so because of their candidate selection.
Labour's class of 2020 is the highest calibre of new MPs that most observers can recall.
They are people who, with or without impressive professional qualifications, have been largely immersed in their communities, not to mention the ethnic diversity.
It does not necessarily mean that that will translate to being excellent MPs but Labour has a large pool of talent on which to base its future.
It will be harder for Labour to get another outright majority. The conditions were unique this year. National helped elect Labour. Labour helped elect the Greens.
And Covid-19 tested everyone.
Hawke's Bay applicants on the housing register are down close to 20% this year.