OPINION
Incoming Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has three key questions confronting him as he grapples with forming his new Cabinet.
Hipkins is heading to Rātana today alongside Jacinda Ardern in what is her last formal engagement in the top job before he is sworn in as PM and chairing his first Cabinet meeting tomorrow.
While he has some big decisions to make before unveiling his new leadership lineup next week, the country’s 41st Prime Minister has some simple solutions as well.
The first is who to put in charge of law and order when he vacates the Police portfolio.
As much as any area, it has contributed to Labour’s falling popularity since the 2020 election.
Former minister Stuart Nash will be acting minister for a few days after Hipkins relinquishes his badge.
But there is a better longer-term solution – Michael Wood.
Crime is an area in which National could exploit even more this year and it needs a firm hand and an agile political operator.
Michael Wood would be an effective Minister of Police. In Immigration, which he should retain, he has demonstrated an attention to detail and the ability to pitch the issues with a fair but firm hand.
His mentor was former leader Phil Goff who was Labour’s law and order expert for many years.
In Police, Wood would come closest to emulating the approach Hipkins himself has taken in the eight months he had the job.
Sometimes it is worth taking risks on an appointment, as Jacinda Ardern did when she appointed Poto Williams to Police in 2020. It didn’t work out and she had to replace her with Hipkins.
Election year is not the time to take too many risks.
Another of Hipkins’ big decisions is what to do about the ministers who are retiring from politics at the election: Commerce Minister David Clark, Conservation Minister Poto Williams and Pacific Peoples Minister Aupito William Sio. The answer is easy. Move them on to the back bench for the next nine months.
In the interests of their party, they should accept that now is the time to surrender their ministerial warrants and not to indulge them with another nine months in the job.
Those new faces to the ministry could include Barbara Edmonds, the MP for Mana, tax law specialist and former ministerial adviser; and Duncan Webb, the MP for Christchurch Central who is currently chief whip.
Other possibilities for a post outside Cabinet include Northland MP Willow-Jean Prime, Hutt South MP Ginny Anderson or top performers of the 2020 intake, Rachel Brooking, Camilla Belich and Tangi Utikere.
Hipkins might also be tempted to move seasoned minister Phil Twyford out of the ministry to free another place for one of the newer MPs.
Edmonds could take Revenue and Pacific Peoples portfolios, Webb could take Commerce and Consumer Affairs.
Nash, who has performed well for five years, could get a few more challenging portfolios, such as SOEs and/or the Earthquake Commission.
The art of any Cabinet reshuffle, especially in election year, is to bring in fresh faces with minimum risk.
By bringing in three or four new ministers and revamping the front bench by bringing forward say Kiri Allan and Jan Tinetti, there would be a strong element of renewal.
Currently at No 17 out of 20, Allan is Justice Minister and is ripe for promotion and could take over Arts and Culture from Carmel Sepuloni.
But it is still important to have stability in danger zones. For that reason, Carmel Sepuloni should keep Social Development.
She has firm control of the potentially problematic portfolio. She could have a couple of Associate Ministers to relieve the workload, Willie Jackson, for example in Employment, and another for Child Poverty Reduction.
Robertson will take temporary responsibility for the Public Service Commission (PSC) when Hipkins is sworn in on Wednesday but it would not be right for him to keep it long-term, when he has Treasury as well. The three central agencies of the public service, Treasury, PSC and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet need three separate ministers.
But Sepuloni could take the Public Service portfolio in the reshuffle. That way the leadership team gets to keep a close eye on it.
Kieran McAnulty who sits outside Cabinet as Associate Local Government Minister is a dead cert to be promoted into Cabinet and to take the portfolio complete with its management of Three Waters.
Education will undoubtedly go permanently to Associate Minister Jan Tinetti when Hipkins relinquishes it, although Tertiary Education could be carved out for a separate role as it has been in the past.
The restructuring of the polytechs needs to have close oversight by an experienced minister.
One of Hipkins’ big decisions will be what to do with former leader and current Health Minister Andrew Little who is overseeing a massive restructuring of the health system.
Little is competent and knows how to bang heads together but he doesn’t handle criticism about it well and he has soured relationships with some critical groups in the sector, nurses.
Ayesha Verrall is the Associate Minister and is the obvious replacement, but as a first-term MP, there would be risks giving her full responsibility for the portfolio.
But if Little lost Health altogether to Verrall, he could have any number of jobs, including Tertiary Education, Conservation, and ACC.
If he kept Health but needed to be relieved of a portfolio to concentrate on it, Treaty Negotiations could go to David Parker.
As Hipkins develops his reshuffle, the focus must be the next nine months before the election but he must also keep half an eye to the future. It would therefore be appropriate for him to make Michael Wood an Associate Finance Minister.
Grant Robertson is likely to become Leader of the House.
Hipkins is talking to MPs this week and is expected to announce his Cabinet line-up next week.
It follows concerns about use-of-force powers being given to staff.