ANALYSIS: The dramatic fall in victims of violent crime, and the impact of the Government’s ‘vibe’ rather than its policies

• The number of victims of violent crime has fallen by more than 20,000, which the Government wanted to achieve by 2029.
• This is before many of the Government’s key law and order policies have been implemented, including Three Strikes and sentencing reforms.
• Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says a significant factor is the vibe from the Government that filters through the system.

ANALYSIS

It’s a general rule of politics that governments claim credit when things are going well, and blame others (especially the previous Government) when they don’t.

But Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith was curiously cautious in an interview with the Herald last week, when he was talking up the Government’s success in restoring law and order.

Asked about factors independent of the Government’s agenda, he said: “We’re definitely contributing to it in the effort that we’re making, but I’m not so arrogant to think that the world revolves around what happens in the Beehive. There are broader factors.”

The drop in serious youth offending since the middle of last year, for example, started before many of the Government’s key policies to tackle youth crime were implemented. Youth advocates speculate that the number of serious repeat youth offenders spiked following the increased isolation and stress of the Covid pandemic, and has started reverting to the downward pre-pandemic trend.

Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. Photo / Dean Purcell

A downward pre-pandemic trend was also apparent in general crime statistics, so reversion to this might also be a factor in the 28,000 fewer adult victims of violent crime in the year to February, compared to the year to October 2023.

This is understandably a success the Government is keen to highlight; it smashes the public service target of 20,000 fewer such victims by 2029.

Announcing it yesterday, Police Minister Mark Mitchell acknowledged the work of Corrections and police (noting a 40% increase in police foot patrolling), but also paid tribute to wider efforts including from ethnic communities and the general public.

Goldsmith didn’t mention broader factors. He said it showed “our work to restore law and order is paying off”, citing anti-gang legislation, the return of Three Strikes, limiting sentencing discounts, and scrapping state funding for cultural reports.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon added that the new tools for police to fight gangs were already “unearthing illegal guns and illegal drugs”.

This was meant to be enabled through police searching the private homes of gang members under a gang patch prohibition order.

Trouble is, no such orders have been issued.

Then there’s Three strikes 2.0, which doesn’t commence until mid-June.

And the Government’s sentencing reforms don’t start until the end of June.

Three Strikes 2.0 and the Government's sentencing reforms, once implemented, are expected to add thousands of extra prisoners over the next 10 years. Photo / 123RF

‘Vibe is important’

No state funding for cultural reports, however, has been in place since March last year. The reports led to an average of a 10% sentencing discount, according to Justice Ministry analysis.

It’s possible - though seems unlikely - that this has played a major role in dramatically lowering the number of victims of violent crime in less than a year.

There’d need to be a significant number of violent offenders serving longer prison sentences due to an inability to fund cultural reports. And those longer sentences would need to have prevented enough violent offending to filter through to the number of victims.

Goldsmith seemed to acknowledge this unlikelihood last week, when he told the Herald that the message was as important as the actual policy.

“It was a signal: rather than this culture of excuses about why you do things, actually, people have to be held personally responsible.”

He was responding to a Herald article about changes made in 2016 by the previous National-led Government, which provided stronger safeguards for community sentences. This led to the shorter and fewer prison sentences Goldsmith was blaming Labour for.

“It’s one of the contributing factors,” Goldsmith conceded.

“I think by far a very significant contributing factor is the shift in Government direction right across the whole board, which was [under Labour], we want fewer people in prison, and lo and behold there were fewer people in prison."

He acknowledged judicial independence, but added: “Vibe is important. It filters its way through. We changed the message.”

Former District Court Judge David Harvey. Photo / Jason Oxenham

Asked about this, former District Court Judge David Harvey said he never felt any vibe from the Labour Government telling him to be more lenient in his sentencing.

“I don’t think any judge would consciously think, ‘Oh, the Government has said we’ve got to reduce prison numbers. Therefore, I’m not going to sentence this guy to jail.’

“You deal with the case that’s before you on the basis of the law. You don’t deal with it on the basis of some mysterious vibe that’s come from Wellington,” said Harvey, who retired in 2016 but returned to the bench under an acting warrant from 2018 to 2021.

Nor was it something that could be measured, he added.

“There isn’t a vibe-o-meter at the door of the judge’s chambers that detects the message from the politicians, and influences accordingly.

“It’s probably nice to think that judges take some notice of what politicians say, but no, the oath is to do right to all men according to the laws and usages of New Zealand, and that’s what you do.”

What the data says

This doesn’t necessarily mean the Government’s policies - or its vibe - have had little or no impact on reducing crime.

And it appears to be reducing.

The number of victims of violent crime dropped from a peak of 215,000 in the year to June 2024 to 157,000 for the year to February 2025 - a 27% fall. There were 12,000 fewer victims in Auckland, while in Canterbury there were 5000 fewer victims.

These statistics are from the NZ Crime and Victims Survey, which is considered more robust because it includes the vast majority of crime that goes unreported.

But there are also downward trends in police victimisation data - a report of a crime to police, regardless of whether it leads to any charges.

The number of police victimisation reports dropped in 2024 for “acts intended to cause injury” (which covers assault and serious assault), and for aggravated robbery.

This followed year-on-year increases in both categories, which led to an increasing number of annual charges and convictions in court.

Luxon yesterday also mentioned a drop in ram raids, though he didn’t mention that these peaked in mid-2022, well before he took office.

In his statement yesterday, at least Goldsmith acknowledged that the numbers are inherently volatile.

But he couldn’t resist the general rule in politics, suggesting any future rise in the number of victims would be Labour’s fault.

“It’s important to remember this survey covers a 24-month period, so we will continue to see the results of Labour’s soft-on-crime approach filter through at points.”

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Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the Press Gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.