Two days out from an important byelection in Hamilton West, NZ Herald political journalist Adam Pearse speaks with the three candidates shaping up as top contenders to secure the bellwether seat.
Every great story needs an underdog, someone to root for in spite of all the odds spelling their demise.
In the case of the Hamilton West byelection, we are presented with the unusual situation of the three people most likely to become the electorate’s next MP doing everything they can to portray their rivals as favourites in the hope they can capitalise on the coveted underdog status.
But does this tactic speak to deeper political motivations? With a general election less than 12 months away, losing a seat renowned for reflecting the mood of the nation could be a critical blow, particularly for Labour and National.
Voting closes at 7pm on Saturday. Turnout has been low so far, with just 7900 people having voted in advance out of the nearly 48,000 eligible people on the general electoral roll.
According to recent polling, National’s Tama Potaka, Labour’s Georgie Dansey and Act’s Dr James McDowall are shaping up as the top contenders out of the 12-strong field - which includes Dr Gaurav Sharma, the former Labour Party MP for Hamilton West whose resignation from Parliament triggered the million-dollar byelection.
So how are they rating their chances ahead of December 10? What do they think of their main rivals? And who has the right to say they are the true underdog in the fight for Hamilton West?
Hamilton West voters have been kind to the National Party in recent years.
National MP Tim Macindoe held the seat from 2008 to 2020, until it was taken from him by Sharma who won by a 6000-vote margin amid Labour’s surging support during the Covid-19 pandemic.
But talking to Potaka, you’d be convinced the electorate was a Labour stronghold.
“The last election, we lost by 6000 votes, that’s a massive turn-around that’s needed, it’s a huge challenge in front of me and I’m working hard to get there,” he said.
On Monday night, a Taxpayers’ Union/The Working Group Curia poll found 46 per cent of decided voters would choose Potaka, compared to Dansey’s 33 per cent and McDowall’s 12.
A 1News-Kantar Public poll earlier that day that put National on 38 per cent up 1 point, Labour on 33 per cent, down 1 point.
Despite this, Potaka is adamant his odds of winning are longer than Dansey’s and that he “continues to be the underdog”.
His slightly confusing logic is reinforced by National leader Christopher Luxon, who cites Labour’s 2020 victory and low voter turnout as reasons for caution.
Only senior National MP Dr Shane Reti has broken ranks, suggesting on Tuesday the underdog line is more a of “mindset” to ensure the “hunger in the team” persists until Saturday.
Over recent weeks, Potaka has grown into the political shoes he hopes to wear from now until at least next year’s election.
At two recent debates, Potaka’s ability to deliver entertaining one-liners and his relentless focus on the high cost of living and crime - identified as the top two issues in the Curia poll - were evident.
Formerly the chief executive of Auckland iwi Ngāi Tai ki Tāmaki, Potaka joined the National Party this year and has temporarily moved to Hamilton - his wife’s hometown and where he lived for a decade while general manager of Tainui Group Holdings.
His less-than-firm connection to Hamilton West, among his somewhat contradictory views on co-governance and past appreciation for this Government’s housing record, have been the main avenue for attack from opponents, but one he boldly defends.
“I spent 10 years in Hamilton making really positive contributions to the city and I’d know Hamilton West as well as, if not better than, any of the other candidates,” he said.
Another criticism he’s had to tolerate comes from his party’s plan to address youth crime. Announced in Hamilton, National’s approach to youth offenders included expanding the use of ankle bracelets and sending repeated offenders aged 15-17 to military academies - a policy that was condemned on its release.
While explaining those policies during Monday night’s debate, Potaka was interrupted by debate co-host Martyn “Bomber” Bradbury, who exclaimed: “Your solution is ankle bracelets on f****** 10-year-olds!”
Potaka claimed the comment didn’t faze him, instead saying it indicated a desire for change.
“What I just hear is frustration, frustration at where the Government has led the country and led Hamilton West and that frustration came out [on Monday].”
He has little to say about Dansey and McDowall, but is quick to dismiss any suggestion the latter could divide right-wing voters.
“No, no, I’m working very hard and as I mentioned to the people [on Monday], a vote for Act right now is a vote for the status quo.
“They’re only two people clearly in my view, who can win this byelection, it’s either the Labour candidate or myself.”
Normally a bubbly, positive character, Georgie Dansey cut a somewhat subdued figure at Monday night’s debate.
She faced an unfriendly and at times unfair crowd, one that did not hesitate to heckle her answers - sometimes before she’d even given them.
Dansey said she was aware Monday’s audience at a Taxpayer’s Union debate might not be kind and suggested a hard-fought campaign could have contributed to her manner.
“I’d put that down to being the end of a really long, hard five weeks and having a crowd not working in your favour always influences that as well.”
Dansey didn’t receive much sympathy from Labour campaign chairwoman Dr Megan Woods, who on Wednesday said it was all part and parcel of elections.
“Byelections are hot, they often are, a lot of focus goes on them more than any local seat election, but Georgie is a strong candidate, she went into this knowing it was going to be a tough race.”
Dansey joined Labour in 2011 and first put her hand up to run as a candidate in 2020, losing to Sharma who went on to win the seat.
With Sharma out of the picture, Dansey relished the opportunity while noting National’s recent success in Hamilton West, saying Monday’s poll result wasn’t unexpected.
“We always knew this was going to be a really tough battle and tough win for us, so I wasn’t surprised but what we have been focusing on is really getting our vote out.”
Significant support had been provided by the party, Dansey said, which paired well with several visits from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who had announced housing and crime prevention boosts for Hamilton in recent weeks.
However, the support of the Government also came with its downsides, namely answering for its faults such as the high cost of living, an ongoing entrenchment scandal and spikes in violent crime - all things Dansey has had little influence over outside of Parliament.
“I definitely feel like there’s more of a national focus on this and that responsibility for me to represent the Labour Party nationally is there,” she said.
“There’s always going to be difficult aspects and there have been really difficult aspects to this campaign but with the support of the party, family and volunteers, I have had a really great time during this campaign overall.”
On Potaka, Dansey expressed concern over the National candidate’s connection to the electorate and his apparent lack of solutions.
“I’ve lived here for 20 years and it does look like someone has been shipped down six weeks before an election to run.
“What I don’t see are alternative plans ... I haven’t seen any new ideas.”
Her criticism was unfortunately undercut by senior Labour minister Willie Jackson, who on Tuesday, oddly paired his own critique of Potaka with glowing praise.
“[Potaka’s] one of our most outstanding lawyers and academics throughout the years, all I’m saying is that there’s been a lot of initiatives he’s been supported through the years that now that he’s in the National party he’s going to have to oppose.”
To most, being 30 per cent behind the top contender a week out from the byelection would be a concern.
But McDowall says the result is a positive one as it showed improvement from earlier polls that had the party below 10 per cent.
“To see a boost to 12 is really good.”
He also pointed out 28 per cent of the 400 respondents in Curia poll had yet to decide who they were voting for.
“A lot of those people that I’ve spoken to are undecided between National and Act and so there’s potential there to push that,” he said.
McDowall’s attempt to win Hamilton West followed two unsuccessful campaigns in Hamilton East (2017) and Waikato (2020).
Despite finishing a distant third in Waikato, McDowall entered Parliament on Act’s list and became party spokesman primarily for economic development, defence and immigration.
His performances in recent debates contrasted with that of his opponents, appearing polite and courteous while rarely showing signs of discontent.
While his style prompted a heckle on Monday for “being too nice”, McDowall said his demeanour had attracted praise from voters.
“The feedback I receive is that I’m a bit more chilled out with how I interact and a lot of people appreciate my very straightforward approach.
“People say, ‘We like the fact that you’re calm and you’re nice and that you don’t go out attacking people like crazy’.”
After Monday’s debate, McDowall did have sympathy for Dansey. The pair had attended law school together before McDowall’s ascension to Parliament and he felt she didn’t deserve the flack she received.
“There’s an argument to be made for past actions of the Labour Party, most of which I don’t agree with, and a brand new candidate who hasn’t been part of that system and is not an MP ... I think she probably should’ve been given more opportunity to actually fully express herself.
“As a fellow human candidate, it was a bit rough to see.”
Having been named the “top dog” by his party leader David Seymour, McDowall criticised the tactic of Labour and National’s candidates to market themselves as underdogs, suspecting it was intended to create a “safety net”.
“I can only assume it’s a bit of a defence mechanism to go, ‘Well we’re the underdog so therefore if we lose, it won’t look that bad’.
“Labour does the same thing but they’re probably right to have done it because I don’t think the Labour candidate is going to win.”
While he hoped to become the Hamilton West MP on Saturday, McDowall acknowledged his sights were also set on next year’s general election.
“A win is important, but so is sending a message,” he said.
“If Act comes out with a really strong percentage in this [byelection], that’s a huge message from the voting base.”
Expectations tempered around return to surplus in 2027/28.