A promising summer for Auckland voters

Here comes the election! Auckland hosts three compaign openings this weekend as politicians try to capture the voting power of our biggest city. Bernard Orsman reports.

Aucklanders beware. If you thought Apec was everywhere, the next month will be every bit as intrusive as columns of politicians lay siege to the Queen City.

No sooner has the Rugby World Cup become compulsory viewing and America's Cup racing begun than political leaders, mobs of underlings and hyper-spin doctors are harrying the city's malls, halls and airwaves for the all-important Auckland vote.

The heavy bombardment starts on Sunday, when Jenny Shipley, Helen Clark and Winston Peters open their nationwide campaigns at a safe distance from one another on the Auckland isthmus.

Will Aucklanders be carried along on a post-Apec, America's Cup glow and repeat 1996, when National and Act grabbed 47 per cent of the party vote?

Will disillusionment with National and a sad set of social statistics highlighted in South Auckland attract a bigger slice than the 37 per cent vote Labour and the Alliance gained last time?

Can Winston Peters crack the Auckland psyche? In 1996, his immigration policy struck a chord in suburbs such as Pakuranga. But across Auckland, NZ First polled 10 per cent against 13.4 per cent nationwide.

A quarter of the country's voters live in 16 general electorates within Auckland's sprawling boundaries. Add the rural fringes and large chunks of two Maori electorates, and Auckland has one in three votes.

Auckland is a large and complex area - within half an hour of downtown Auckland can be found more wealth, more poverty and more diverse ethnic communities than anywhere else in the country.

And Auckland voters are flighty. Attracting the Auckland vote is a tacking duel.

In 1993, the Alliance pulled 20 per cent of the vote. By 1996, Jim Anderton was down to 7.6 per cent and Auckland was embracing Richard Prebble, whose Act party got 11.1 per cent.

One party with a special eye on Auckland's ethnic vote is United, which merged with the Ethnic Minority Party in 1997 and wants to let in 200,000 migrants over the next two years.

At the first MMP election, Auckland got roughly its share of MPs - 36 out of 120.

Nineteen were constituency MPs and 17 list MPs.

They made up half the present cabinet, but included only one party leader, Labour's Helen Clark.

Auckland will have between 35 and 40 MPs after November 27.

National has been unpopular in the city, with a feeling abroad that it has neglected Auckland.

One strategist says the party was "dead in the water" three months ago.

But the polls have shown a turnaround over the past month, and party president John Slater is confident this will last until election day.

A matter of concern for National is that Act will savage the centre-right party vote.

Act has to get its vote from somewhere, and that somewhere is a mosaic of the wealthiest suburbs in town.

The party has set its sights on 30 per cent of the party vote in Epsom (its best seat in 1996, with 22 per cent), and 25 per cent in Tamaki and North Shore.

In the past, Labour has confined National to its Remuera, Tamaki and North Shore heartlands.

More recently, it has lost that ascendancy, and at the last election Labour won only six of the 15 Auckland seats.

A population bulge in West Auckland has added a 16th seat this election.

But the signs for Labour in 1999 are positive - for the party vote and in the electorates.

Having an urban liberal leader who understands the intricacies of Auckland's growing pains is a big hometown advantage. Jenny Shipley, Wyatt Creech and the "brat pack" of younger National ministers all come from provincial towns, which creates a credibility problem for National.

Add to that the retirements of urban MPs Sir Douglas Graham, Don McKinnon, Christine Fletcher and Sir William Birch, and National's biggest light in town for this election is either Maurice Williamson or Murray McCully.

Vote-splitting on the left lost Labour two West Auckland seats in 1996, but the party is confident of winning Te Atatu and Titirangi this time.

Mark Gosche also has a good shot at unseating National's Belinda Vernon in Maungakiekie, and Labour would dearly love Ann Hartley to beat National's Ian Revell in Northcote and re-establish an electoral base on the North Shore.

The Alliance concedes Aucklanders were doing well in 1996 and shuddered at the prospect of its steep tax rates.

This time round, the party figures the scales have tipped back its way, and it will be hammering jobs, education and the transport crisis.

Auckland list MP Laila Harre says the Alliance would integrate Infrastructure Auckland and its $1 billion for transport projects into the Auckland Regional Council to create a truly regional organisation which could act to solve the city's problems.

But, she says, it's one thing to make promises in Auckland and another thing to get voters to listen.

Right now, she says, there is no wave for politicians to catch.

"Labour and the Alliance are suffering from the lack of any overt enthusiasm for a change of government.

"I really believe people in Auckland want a change of government but the enthusiasm from them just isn't there."