"Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" could sum up the year in New Zealand politics. Many political commentators have noted what an unusually turbulent year it has been for the politicians. But few can point to much substance in political debate or change in the fortunes of the parties.
Tracy Watkins' end-of-year column has a very good overall summation of the year of the majors and minors in politics - see: Politicians in search of goodwill to end the year. Watkins says "2015 has been yet another turbulent political year - think ponytail-gate, resignations, pork barrel politics, the shock Northland by-election loss, another baby formula scare, secret trips to Iraq, yet more spying allegations, the "rapists" backlash, Saudi sheep deals, a polarising flag debate, the bizarre Colin Craig train wreck, leadership surprises and an economy buffeted by plunging dairy prices and a housing crisis. So what's the sum of all that? Maybe that the more things change, the more they stay the same."
Watkins also emphasises the sound and fury in her column with Vernon Small, Political week - A year of it: "2015 was the year no one saw coming. It was supposed to be a breather after a tumultuous election campaign and torrid couple of months. A period of consolidation. Time for National to square aware its legacy with a predictable third term agenda, and a solid majority in the House. A chance for Labour to lick its wounds after - yet another - humiliating election result and to rebuild under - yes, yet another - new leader. So much for the script."
See also Stacey Kirk's Political lessons learnt should benefit us all, right? She says it's been "a fairly major political year. And there were some bumpy moments - boy, was there some turbulence."
The lack of change during 2015 is also picked up on by Rodney Hide, who concludes, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose" in his end-of-year column, Things will change...but stay the same. He says "Throughout the year, we were told it was all about to change for Key and National. I might have been guilty of saying that myself. But it never did. The great ship of National steamed on, no matter the troubled water. Even losing the true-blue seat of Northland didn't rattle the cutlery or spill the tea."
Audrey Young says it's been a low-key year in politics, and explains why: "The temperature of the political year was also a result of the Opposition not yet being in top gear. Andrew Little has been settling in his first year as Labour leader, but has had such a stabilising effect on a previously fractured party that he has to be a contender for Politician of the Year. The Greens were necessarily distracted for much of the year with their own leadership issues. It took the first six months to elect James Shaw as male co-leader for Metiria Turei and the second six months for them to reorganise the Greens' office to their mutual liking. Peters' win in Northland has meant a period of adjustment by him back to the demands of a constituency MP and less focus on point-scoring in Parliament" - see: Politician of the Year: Top performers across the spectrum.
Blogger Danyl Mclauchlan draws attention to the fact that little of substance has occurred, but says this suits a new age of media-savviness amongst politicians. In his blog post, Kathryn Ryan sums up 2015 in NZ politics, he quotes the RNZ broadcaster's overview of recent political shenanigans: "Politically there's a complete policy vacuum. Some of the stuff we're going to talk about today - pony-tail pulling, Colin Craig - frankly it's just barely worthy of the public's time. And yet what we're seeing is a very effective management by the incumbent government of a new media environment".
Mclauchlan elaborates on similar themes in his post, Notes on politics in 2015. He says "It wasn't a very inspiring year" and gives brickbats to both main party leaders: "Andrew Little appears to be (another) uninspiring Labour leader"; "John Key's role as Prime Minister seems to be mostly ceremonial."
But his bigger point is that the decline of the media, combined with the rise of politicians chasing soft news coverage, means we are going to have serious political wrongdoing undetected, while vacuous but polished performers rise to the top. As an example, he argues "The resignation of Murray McCully over the Saudi sheep deal should have been the biggest political story of the year."
Stable political fortunes and problems
The Government's buoyant popularity in 2015 was an important end-of-year observation for many, and this reality is in conflict with so many politicians and commentators pronouncing National's decline and disconnect. This is brilliantly pointed out in Liam Hehir's column, Polls show Government not as 'out of touch' as claimed.
Why has National remained so powerful? Duncan Garner explains it by reference to Key's strong pragmatism: "For now at least John Key clearly wants a fourth term. And he ends this year still firmly in control of the centre and with National still polling in the high 40s. As a National MP told me this week, when others in the caucus are agitating for Key to be tougher on welfare or Maori issues, he reminds them that some of these people voted for National and deserve loyalty in return for their vote. Key continues to straddle the centre like no other prime minister in this country's history" - see: Forget Crusher, Paula Bennett is National's next leader.
Similarly, Phil Quin argues to this an Australian audience, "voters remain consistently happy with John Key as long as he presides over a resolutely moderate, do-little, basically Labour Party agenda. They do not think the country is going to hell in a hand-basket, and no amount of Labour insisting otherwise will change that. Such doomsaying makes Labour, not National, look 'out of touch'." - see: Malcolm in the middle is a strategy for success.
Looking at the state of Labour this year, Vernon Small emphasises a lack of change and dynamism: "Torpor. Stasis. Treading water. It's the story of New Zealand politics at the moment and it ought to be keeping Labour's strategists awake at night. How on earth do they inject some excitement, let alone disruption, into the political discourse?" - see: NZ politics 2015; wake me up when something changes.
In fact Labour, along with the rest of New Zealand's political parties, seems immune from the rising radicalism occurring in politics around the world this year, which is well expressed this month by Stephen Mills' in his article, Fringe politics new world order. But he warns that not all New Zealanders have been satisfied with what's on offer in parliamentary politics in New Zealand. His research shows that 68 per cent are "generally satisfied" with the political party options, while 25 per cent - especially younger New Zealanders - "would like to see a new party or some new parties emerge before the next election".
On retiring from the parliamentary press gallery this year, the then political editor of RNZ, Brent Edwards, penned a farewell column, What's wrong with the way politics in practised in NZ?. He explained New Zealand politics is all about being hard on people, but soft on issues. Accordingly, "In the atmosphere which exists at 1 Bowen St the political game and how it is played becomes all important. It is exemplified in how political leaders are judged. Most leaders are not judged on the substance of what they say but how they say it."
Similarly, see James Ritchie's Why have politics in NZ become so timid? and Rodney Hide's It's polls, not policies, that count in politics. Hide says that political decision-making is guided more than ever by pragmatism rather than principles, and this is "a recipe for the status quo and stagnation."
Two politicians who seemed to epitomise New Zealand politics in 2015 - with all its variations of pragmatism, principle and media-savviness - were Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins. For an interesting dialogue between the two stars of 2015 see Simon Wilson's Metro feature, Jacinda Ardern V Judith Collins.
