It's Keymageddon! The phenomenally successfully National Party Prime Minister has pushed the eject button, and everyone is scrambling to understand what it all means. Here are 20 items of analysis to help understand this quickly changing political situation.
1. Key's departure is like New Zealand's Brexit. Massey University political scientist Richard Shaw says "When future generations look back on this year they will refer to it as The Year No-One Saw Anything Coming. Not Brexit, not Trump and now - in our own little antipodean way - not John Key's resignation" - see: The Year No-one Saw Anything Coming.
Shaw doesn't believe that Key's endorsement of English will count for that much, but has some other interesting observations about the race for the deputy position. For instance, "Above all, perhaps, in these supposedly populist times they will be looking for someone who is able to connect with voters the way that Key has for so long. Objectively, of course, he shouldn't have been able to do so: Key was no more an ordinary Kiwi bloke than Donald Trump is a natural ally of working people. But that wasn't the point: what he has is a sense of self-deprecation, an ease with others and a finely tuned sense of what matters to people that National would like to bottle. They can't, of course, but what chance a duo between a Westie Chick and a Southern Man?"
2. Key's departure is sensible and smart, but also selfish. I make this case on the opinion piece, John Key's calculated 'hospital pass' resignation. I argue that Key knew when to sell his political stocks, and could see that a drop in the value was on its way. And for a bonus item with some similar arguments as well as more detail on some of the potential looming dangers for Key, see Colin James' John Key checks out. The game has suddenly changed.
3. The mystery of John Key's decision-making over his resignation is slowly being untangled. The best account so far is Tracy Watkins and Vernon Small's: Key's decision - how it played out. For a bonus view on all the possible reasons Key might have had to depart, see Simon Wilson's John's gone: The end of NZ's Mr Feelgood.
4. John Key will be missed by many. For a tribute from one of Key's biggest supporters, see Mike Hosking's John Key is the best Prime Minister of my lifetime.
5. What will happen now? For the best overall discussion of which politicians will "seize this moment" and shine - English, Collins, Little, Peters, etc - see Tim Watkin's excellent The call of the centre. He argues, "This is a rare moment where just about anything is possible."
6. Why was Key so successful? One of the best analyses of his strengths is John Armstrong's Leadership may be poisoned chalice for John Key's successor. He argues that Key's success arose out of two factors: "First, he was a great communicator who could charm people on every level... Most of all, he never suffered from one of the worst faults of politicians. He never talked down to anyone"; and "his pragmatism. He was an unrelenting believer that politics was the art of the possible. If it wasn't possible then it didn't happen. Full stop. More than that, he was willing to openly play fast and loose with National's guiding principles if that was required to outflank the party's opponents and capture ground which had traditionally been their stamping ground."
7.
Key's legacy is uncertain. This is strongly argued in Giovanni Tiso's excellent article,
