What does yesterday's Cabinet reshuffle say about where the National Government is going? Not a lot, really. But it does reiterate that Prime Minister Bill English will continue to govern in his general conservative manner. He's not one for shaking things up too much, even when faced with large challenges such as the departure of two senior ministers, as well as the need to stamp a fresh look on his administration. Nonetheless, there are some interesting elements to the Government's refresh.
The Brownlee gamble in foreign affairs
The most adventurous decision was the promotion of Gerry Brownlee to the foreign affairs portfolio, with some associated big changes for the regeneration of Christchurch.
Of course, Brownlee was really an obvious decision, and he was seen as the frontrunner for the hefty portfolio. Many commentators have stressed Brownlee's seniority, competence and experience as key factors in making him the new Minister of Foreign Affairs. For example, Audrey Young has said that "Brownlee was not the only choice English had for Foreign Affairs but he was the safest: Brownlee spent 12 years on the back bench and in Opposition before being made Leader of the House and serving in the heart of Government for almost nine years" - see: Gerry Brownlee may have little time to make his mark on the Foreign Minister's job.
Young also claims "Brownlee will bring an array of political skills, endearing sense of humour, and personal attributes to the job, although finesse and patience are not chief among them. He has mastered the art of bluntess, impatience and intolerance of inadequate officials while he was overseeing the Christchurch earthquake rebuild." But she also questions whether the new minister really does have the necessary diplomatic character for the job.
Writing prior to the announcement, Matthew Hooton also saw Brownlee as the obvious choice: "McCully's obvious successor is Gerry Brownlee, who has earned the prize, having helped keep the National Party together through the Brash years, loyally vacated the deputy leadership to make room for Bill English in 2006, knocked heads together sometimes publicly and brutally to drive the Canterbury recovery and demonstrated skilful behind-the-scenes diplomacy as defence minister. Mr Brownlee's experience and seniority is needed at a time of dreadful global uncertainty" - see: Brownlee has earned foreign affairs prize (paywalled).
Also writing in the NBR, Rob Hosking challenges some of the criticisms often made of Brownlee's character by his opponents: "That has already led to some jeering about his often undiplomatic manner and choice of words, some snobbish comment about his work history as a woodwork teacher, and also some tasteless speculation on the impact all that flying and banqueting will have on the not-particularly-svelte-like Christchurch MP. Mr Brownlee might not be the sleekest intellect in Parliament but he has a tonne of unadorned raw intelligence and rat-like cunning. It's not a bad combination for foreign affairs" - see: Cabinet reshuffle: Bill battens down hatches for election year swells (paywalled).
However, Hosking did think there was another more adventurous option for the foreign affairs portfolio: Nick Smith. He argues that although Smith has been a liability in the housing and environment portfolios - because Smith is intellectually capable, but "not good at this sort of retail politics" demanded of those roles - he is still very popular with the National Party base, and has much to offer.
Hosking argued: "So why not make him Minister of Foreign Affairs? It's one of the most senior roles in any government - or should be, anyway. It's a complex job, but Dr Smith has the intellectual capacity. It involves more of what might be called a "wholesale politics" role - foreign ministers deal with the cognoscenti rather than the wider public. Dr Smith might be rather strong stuff, on a personal level, at times, but the world's diplomats are used to that. It would be a significant shift but a sensible, if somewhat daring, one" - see: Cabinet reshuffle could resolve the Smith issue (paywalled).
Many writers are stressing the difficult new global environment Brownlee will now have to deal to with. And some aren't convinced that he is up to this task. For the strongest critique of his suitability, see Chris Trotter's Moving beyond good and evil: Can Gerry Brownlee get past America's moral absolutes?. Trotter suggests that "Brownlee will have to stop looking and sounding as if he considers himself much too busy to think."
