Policy chaotic says leading Government scientist

On the eve of a major climate conference in New Zealand, a senior Government scientist has spoken out about chaotic policy in science and climate.

Kevin Patterson, who models energy needs for the Ministry of Economic Development, is disillusioned and considering joining the brain drain overseas.

He blamed the Government's climate change policy - in which projections for meeting Kyoto Protocol commitments mysteriously reversed - on a former Energy Minister confusing a "target" with what could be achieved.

"Pete Hodgson [the minister] stuffed it up ... he basically directed the staff to model the next target as if it had been accomplished."

Dr Patterson was distraught at the dropping of the carbon tax, which he said would have solved about 75 per cent of our global warming problems.

The decision meant New Zealand had no realistic hope of meeting its protocol targets, as other policies, like projects to reduce emissions and encourage more efficient use of energy, were "not very effective".

"They're dreaming if they think it's going to make a difference."

His comments come in the wake of continuing concern about the number of talented New Zealanders deciding to emigrate to further their careers and as climate scientists gather in Wellington tomorrow for a conference at Victoria University which will be addressed by British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Wednesday.

Also, this week Parliament is to debate a private member's bill by Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons that would allow local authorities to consider climate change when considering resource consents.

Dr Patterson is due to finish his latest job, helping to write a document which projects New Zealand's coal, oil, gas and electricity needs for the next two-and-a-half decades, this week.
And while he realised speaking out could jeopardise his chances of finding further work here, he no longer cared. "I don't do this to go through the motions, I do it to make a difference."

Dr Patterson decided to speak out after becoming aware of the work of Arnold Kransdorff, an American management consultant. Mr Kransdorff, who claimed to have invented the term "corporate amnesia", is in New Zealand promoting his latest book, which warns of the dangers of organisations losing productivity through high staff turnover.

Dr Patterson was particularly disillusioned at reforms which required scientists to compete for funding from a public pool.

It was almost impossible to obtain funding for new projects, and therefore ground-breaking research which could eventually prove lucrative for New Zealand was not being pursued. "Once you had a job for life, but now you basically don't know whether you'll have work from one year to the next ... It's been a total disaster."

He was among a group of scientists who in 2003 wrote an open letter to the Minister of Research, Science and Technology about funding concerns.

Scientists had become adept at using "buzzwords" to win funding, and spent much of their time writing funding applications, using phrases that appeal to decision-makers.

He was sick of the high staff turnover at places he had worked - which included Allflex and dairy giant Fonterra - and believed New Zealand had the wrong idea about the path it needed. In the Government sector, researchers had become resigned to working on "MRG" projects. MRG stands for "merry-go-round".

Dr Patterson found it difficult to see any silver lining in the Government's recent policy to persuade graduates to stay in the country, by writing off the interest on their student loans.

Despite all the talk of a major skills shortage, there were simply not enough interesting jobs for students who pursued their areas of interest all the way to a PhD.

Dr Patterson studied at Waikato University and added his PhD in Scotland on a Commonwealth scholarship which required him to return to New Zealand - which he now regrets.


Mr Hodgson said last night that although the carbon tax would have been a useful aid to tackling climate change, not even "the most ardent optimist" had modelled it as likely to neutralise anything like 75 per cent of New Zealand's contribution to global warming.


"It was going to be a useful addition if we could get the numbers in Parliament," he said, while listing a range of other initiatives the Government was taking against climate change.


These included the first overhaul of the Building Code since 1978 to create more energy-efficient homes, more than doubling the installation of solar water-heating and providing free energy audits for major electricity users at a cost of millions of dollars.


Mr Hodgson said he shared many of Dr Patterson's concerns about climate change, which he regarded as "one of the big challenges for the forthcoming century".


But he said the scientist was seriously mistaken on many fronts, including his suggestion that New Zealand's Kyoto projections had mysteriously reversed.


"There is no mystery about the reversal of the projections of whether we would be a net seller or a net buyer," he said.


The fact that New Zealand would have to buy carbon credits from 2008 to 2012 was announced as a result of an official report 10 months ago, and he said Dr Patterson would have had ample time to examine that document and an update published in December.