KEY POINTS:
At least 60 fewer people died on New Zealand's roads last year than in 2007, a result the Ministry of Transport believes may have been aided by the punishing winter fuel prices.
Although the provisional road toll for 2008 will not be announced officially until late this morning, the death rate by late last night of 359 was the lowest for more than half a century.
It was 62 below the toll for 2007 of 421 deaths, and the best result since 1956, when there were five times fewer registered vehicles on the roads.
But police and the ministry are concerned that the level of serious injuries, at around 3000, is still about the same as previous years - meaning permanent disabilities for too many New Zealanders.
The latest holiday toll of 11 road deaths - for the period which began at 4pm on Christmas Eve - is also three more than for the same time last summer and will raise questions about whether lower fuel prices are tempting some drivers to plant their feet back down on the gas pedal.
Ministry land transport environment and safety general manager David Crawford said he hoped not, and that drivers had instead become lasting converts to achieving fuel economy, with a bonus of safer roads.
He believed tough times remained an incentive for driving more slowly to conserve fuel, although the roads may be seeing more holiday traffic this summer as fewer people have enough money to travel overseas.
The counter-balance may be fewer overseas tourists trying to grapple with unfamiliar New Zealand roads.
Mr Crawford said Government receipts from fuel tax and road-user charges while petrol and diesel prices were at an all-time high over winter remained within the range of what had been predicted, although at the lower end.
Despite survey reports of lower vehicle volumes on some roads, the tax receipts suggested fuel sales had not fallen markedly. "But what we wonder is whether people have been driving a bit more slowly to conserve fuel, which will explain why sales are at the lower end [of expectations]," he said.
"What we can say is that the underlying themes of safer roads, safer cars, enforcement and education are still working because the road toll is tracking down.
"Of course, what we are interested in is whether, as the fuel price comes down again, people will put their foot back on the accelerator."
Mr Crawford described the 2007 toll of 421 road deaths - up 28 from the previous year - as a "blip" in an otherwise downward trend.
But he said the latest toll was still above a target trend line needed to achieve a 10-year goal of no more than 300 annual road deaths by the end of next year.
There also remained some worrying factors, notably the high death rate for young people aged 15 to 24, who accounted for 112 of the 346 people killed on the roads between January 1 and December 23 last year.
Another big concern was a 25 per cent rise last year in deaths of motorcyclists and pillion passengers, to about 50 after three died in a pileup near Christchurch at the weekend.
Mr Crawford said an increase in numbers of middle-aged men indulging in a "second childhood" on much more powerful bikes than they might have ridden as youths was being reflected in deaths and serious injuries, and would be a focus for Government safety campaigns this year.
There were also many more scooters and mopeds on the roads, although they tended to be involved in serious injury rather than fatal crashes.
Among safety measures likely to be introduced within the next few months would be a mandatory requirement for motorcycles to be ridden at all times with their headlights on, and for changes to graduated licence regimes.
Drivers of other vehicles also needed to be reminded to look out for motorcycles, and to recognise that the roads were "a shared space".
National road policing manager Superintendent Paula Rose said the level of serious injuries remained unacceptably high, and was in fact on the rise for young male drivers.
Many would be left with disabilities as "a lifetime of reminders of the crash".
