Leaders from 18 Pacific countries are set to descend on Suva, Fiji, this week for what is shaping up to be the most significant Pacific Islands Forum in recent memory. Discussions about regional security will be a hot topic but for the island nations themselves, climate change is their main
PIF 2022: China, security and climate change - why this year's Pacific Islands Forum will be most significant in years
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Yet for the past decade Australia, traditionally one of the Pacific's closest partners, has been regarded by many there as the worst listener.
The new government, under Anthony Albanese, however, has promised to turn this relationship around and become a leader on climate action, potentially also pressuring New Zealand to take its commitments even further.
Leaders from 18 Pacific countries - including Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Albanese - arrive in Suva this week for the 51st Pacific Islands Forum leaders' meeting. It is the first in-person meeting since Tuvalu in 2019, before the pandemic.
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The forum is a means to discuss regional issues, from security to fishing stocks to combating environmental issues and climate change - and now Covid-19.
Chaired by Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, this forum will also seek endorsement of the Blue Pacific Continent strategy - a regional roadmap to 2050.
Regional security and rising geopolitical tensions - stirred by China and the US - are expected to dominate many discussions.
Recent tensions stem back to a security arrangement signed between the Solomon Islands and China in March.
Tensions were further stoked as China embarked on a tour of the region seeking to drum up support for a broader security and trade agreement, which was ultimately turned down by Pacific countries, with the caveat that it would be discussed at the Pacific Islands Forum.
The United States has also entered the fray, conducting its own tour and seeking closer security ties with New Zealand and allies including the Establishment of the Partners in the Blue Pacific.
The forum is the first opportunity for the Solomon Islands agreement, and wider concerns, to be discussed at this regional level.
The increasing attention on China has also raised questions about the strength of relations New Zealand and Australia have with the Pacific countries.
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Dr Iati Iati, Pacific security fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, said he disagreed with sentiments New Zealand and Australia had "not done enough", with Australia still the largest aid donor to the region (New Zealand is the second) and with the highest number of diplomats.
Rather, it was quality, not quantity, of involvement, he said.
"And this requires a very good understanding of the region."
This included addressing trade and development concerns, the efficacy of the regional seasonal employer (RSE) schemes, and stronger action on climate change.
Typically representatives from 18 countries outside the forum - including China, the United States and the European Union - are present throughout the week and are included in an official post-forum dialogue.
The official line is they were excluded this year to allow forum members to focus on unity, particularly in light of the threat by five Micronesian countries last year to leave the forum over leadership issues.
An agreement reached last month is hoped to prevent that split occurring, and will be discussed further at the forum.
Iati said the exclusion of observer states would "play well for the Western countries".
"America probably won't mind sitting this one out as they'll still have Australia and New Zealand in there championing similar policies."
Micronesian countries also tended to veer towards the west - David Panuelo, President of the Federated States of Micronesia, has said the Solomons security deal could increase political tensions and undermine sovereignty.
Iati said discussions would likely be around setting clear boundaries about security matters the forum can get involved with, without affecting the "hard-fought sovereignty Pacific Island countries have gained".
Ardern has stated repeatedly the need to respect the sovereignty of Pacific nations when it comes to determining their own bilateral security arrangements, while also applying a regional lens.
"We can be country neutral in approach, but have a Pacific bias on the values we apply for these engagements," she said at the Lowy Institute in Sydney on Thursday.
She has also stated New Zealand is "strongly opposed" to any militarisation in the Pacific, and that any regional issues needed to be discussed at the forum, as per the Biketawa Declaration signed in 2000.
"The model exists, we need to use it," she said.
Ardern also stated she saw the forum as a means to establish region-wide climate change mitigation projects.
"While we all have a concern, and rightly so, about any moves towards militarisation of our region, that must surely be matched by a concern for those who experience the violence of climate change."
Ardern said that was why New Zealand had committed $1.3 billion over four years towards climate change, with at least 50 per cent going to the Pacific.
"But there is an opportunity in my mind for the Pacific Island Forum to play a role in establishing region-wide mitigation projects that climate funding can support."
Dr Anna Powles, a Massey University expert in Pacific security, said it was clear Pacific island countries were "frustrated" at how strategic attention from the superpowers had taken attention away from climate change.
"The fact no post-forum dialogue will be held is clearly an indication they are frustrated at how geopolitical issues have been dominating the agenda," Powles said.
The forum was "hugely significant", given it is the first in-person since Covid-19 and developments over the past six months.
China and the Solomons deal would be on the table, with discussions about how the forum should respond to such issues now and in the future, as strategic interest increases.
"It will very much be about solidifying regionalism and collective action, and about the forum as a vehicle for these issues," Powles said.
What is the Pacific Islands Forum?
The forum was founded in 1971 to enhance co-operation between countries and territories of the Pacific Ocean, including on issues such as trade, security, environmental issues and peacekeeping operations.
There are 18 member countries and 18 observer countries. A forum chair rotates every year and members meet annually. The last in-person leaders' meeting was in Tuvalu in 2019, prior to the pandemic.
Key issues at PIF 2022:
Climate change
Climate change has been a major concern at recent forum events, with calls for Australia and New Zealand as the largest and wealthiest - and biggest emitters - to not only do more domestically but raise the issue internationally.
New Zealand is seen as a leader but, under Scott Morrison, Australia's relations soured. New Zealand has committed to 50 per cent emissions cuts by 2030 and $1.3 billion in climate financing over next four years - at least half for the Pacific.
Meanwhile, Australia has upped its pledged cuts to 43 per cent under Albanese, and its annual climate financing is currently around AU$400m - slightly more than New Zealand but far less per capita.
Announcements are expected during the forum from both countries, particularly from Australia as the new administration seeks to start a new chapter on climate change and drum up support to co-host a global climate change summit with Pacific nations.
Militarisation of the Pacific
Geopolitical tensions have been rising in the Pacific, further sparked by a security arrangement between the Solomon Islands and China at the start of the year.
Tensions have been further stoked as China toured the region seeking to drum up support for a broader security and trade agreement, which was ultimately turned down by Pacific countries, with the caveat that it would be discussed at the Pacific Islands Forum, as per the Biketawa Declaration.
The United States has also entered the fray, conducting its own tour and seeking closer security ties with New Zealand and allies including the establishment of the Partners in the Blue Pacific. The forum offers the first opportunity for these issues to be hashed out at a regional level.
Unity in the forum
In February last year, five Micronesian states announced they would leave the forum after a leadership dispute. After much negotiation, Pacific Island leaders struck a deal in June, which is expected to be clarified at the forum.
The forum will also seek the endorsement of the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, a long-term vision for the region.
The Biketawa Declaration
Signed in 2000, this was established to co-ordinate responses to regional crises. It was agreed in the regional context of the 2000 Fijian coup d'état and ethnic tensions in the Solomon Islands.
In short, it holds forum members to decide collectively on matters that affect the region as a whole, as opposed to individual nations. It commits forum members to core values and where breached, members agree to a co-ordinated response.
Its powers have been invoked regarding issues in the Solomon Islands, Tonga riots in 2006, and suspending Fiji after it failed to hold elections after the 2006 coup.
The declaration was invoked to respond collectively to the pandemic, and also referenced during the 2021 Samoan constitutional crisis.
It was upgraded in 2018, with the Boe Declaration, to include issues of human security, environmental security, transnational crime and cybersecurity.
The key players:
Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama
Bainimarama shot to political power in 2006 as the leader of a coup. Fiji was suspended from the forum in 2009 but reinstated in 2014 after it held an election. Bainimarama boycotted the forum in protest at international sanctions and pressures, returning in 2019.
As host and forum chair, Bainimarama will be hoping to leave his mark with substantial agreements, particularly around the Blue Pacific roadmap to 2050 and climate change. It is also a critical time for the PM with Fijian elections in November.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare
All eyes will be on Sogavare, who has led the Solomon Islands since 2019, around his country's increasing engagement with China, particularly on security matters. The past few years have included much domestic turmoil, with violent riots rocking the country in November.
Many have cited dissatisfaction with Sogavare's 2019 decision to switch the country's diplomatic allegiances from Taiwan to China.
This year it was revealed the Solomon Islands had signed a security pact with China, leading to concerns about the superpower establishing a military base in the region. China has recently begun training local police.
Sāmoa Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mataʻafa
This will be the first forum for Fiamē, who last year became the first female prime minister of her country.
Fiamē also became only the second female leader of a Pacific island country, after Hilda Heine of the Marshall Islands. Female representation in Pacific politics remains very poor, at just over eight per cent regionally (excluding NZ and Australia) and three countries with zero female politicians - Vanuatu, Federated States of Micronesia and Papua New Guinea.
Fiamē has already shown strong regional leadership, particularly around China's influence, and is a strong advocate of the forum for discussing such matters.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern
Ardern is held in high regard across the region, particularly for her leadership on climate change. However, the pandemic has interrupted normal interactions and New Zealand has been comparatively slow to re-engage in face-to-face dialogue.
Ardern and Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta are expected to take part in bilateral meetings alongside the forum to rekindle those relations, particularly with Micronesia and Melanesia, with whom relations have historically been weaker.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
Much attention will be paid to new Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Despite being in office for only a few months, Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong have made a strong effort to restore relations with Pacific countries.
Former leader Scott Morrison was very unpopular in the Pacific, largely due to his lack of action around climate change and paternalistic approach to their relationships.
Conversely, Albanese has stated he wants Australia to become a leader on climate action. He has also spoken out in stronger terms than his New Zealand counterpart over security concerns and China's increasing presence.
Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape
Marape's intention to attend the forum has sparked interest given his country is in the middle of a general election. He has been Prime Minister since 2019, and a member of PNG's Parliament since 2007. With nearly nine million people it is the second-largest country by population among forum members, and second-largest also by geography.
