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Professional engineers are disputing claims by Prime Minister Helen Clark and others that rising petrol prices are helping to reduce carbon emissions by discouraging motorists from driving.
The Institution of Professional Engineers says the Government's own figures show high petrol prices are defying conventional forces of supply and demand, having little or no impact on traffic in Auckland and elsewhere.
Institution policy director Tim Davin said yesterday that a rise in petrol prices of almost 48 per cent between March 2004 and the end of last year was in fact accompanied by a slight increase in fuel consumption.
He acknowledged there would have been a decline in consumption in the absence of any economic growth over that time, but only by a "tiny" 3.5 per cent.
Helen Clark said early this month, when announcing a two-year delay in adding the transport sector to the carbon emissions trading scheme, that steep fuel price rises appeared to be doing the scheme's job for it by suppressing demand.
She said the Government's latest demand forecast pointed to zero growth for petrol over New Zealand's first emissions reduction commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, between now and 2012.
The Business Council for Sustainable Development also found from a survey that 23 per cent of New Zealanders expected prices above $2 a litre - a threshold breached last week by the mainstream 91-octane grade - would force them to cut back their fuel use.
But the engineers are placing more weight on the responses of the 19 per cent who said price would have no impact on their fuel consumption, even if petrol hit $5 a litre.
Mr Davin noted other business council survey findings, that 45 per cent of residents of Auckland and North Shore Cities reported having no viable public transport alternatives, a figure which rose to 48 per cent in Manukau, 56 per cent in Waitakere and 81 per cent in Rodney District.
