Petrol prices tipped to double or treble

Auckland's transport decision-makers were urged yesterday to scale back a proposed $6.5 billion spend-up on roads over 10 years, in case fuel became too expensive for most people.

"The shortfall between supply and demand for oil will mean oil-based fuels will be priced out of reach of most New Zealanders," senior Auckland University statistician Ross Ihaka warned the Regional Land Transport Committee at a hearing on its transport strategy.

Dr Ihaka, representing a Mt Albert and Avondale incorporated society called Liveable Communities, said dramatic price increases were imminent even assuming global oil production would not peak until 2060.

He said that date was at the "upper end" of a US Government estimate, but he produced a graph to indicate that an ever-rising demand for oil was due to overtake supply about now, meaning a likely doubling or trebling of prices.

No realistic alternative fuel was at hand, as hydrogen still demanded too much energy to produce, and Dr Ihaka questioned the wisdom of building extra roads if people could not afford to run vehicles on them.

Northern Employers and Manufacturers' Association official Peter Atkinson earlier urged the committee to back a far higher roading budget, of almost $8.9 billion, to be part-funded from tolls and to support a rapid completion of the western ring route among others.

He said that route would do far more to relieve congestion than public transport initiatives. Economic growth required more freight to travel on roads, and public transport could not meet that need.

But Eden-Albert Community Board representative Phil Chase, also of Liveable Communities, said roads would be freed up for freight by persuading more people to leave their cars at home in favour of public transport.