Force for the North - Winston Peters is rattling National's cage. Photo / Nick Reed
Winston Peters' bus is lurching ominously to the right. The Force for the North is inert, stuck between a rock and a soft place.
The New Zealand First leader's bus is bigger than most of the coaches that convey tourists over Northland's narrow winding roads and one lane bridges which, thanks to Peters' inspired bid for the Northland byelection, the Government is suddenly throwing money at.
But turning around at Bland Bay, the bus has come off a narrow driveway and its rear right-end is wedged on the road edge. The bus which invites Northlanders to send a message to Wellington is going nowhere.
The driver, a phlegmatic type named Geoff, is attempting to jack it up. Winston is directing operations, his mood less and less bland. In a campaign which is all about momentum, it's vital the bus keeps going.
Happily, some locals happen along, return with some sturdy planks, and before long the Peters roadshow is back on tarseal.
The man with the planks shouts his farewell: "What message do you want me to send?"
It takes five hours to drive from one end of this electorate of far-flung villages to the other. The bus is an unmissable mobile billboard but, other than driver Geoff and Winston, there are just two staffers on board. The question for Northland voters is whether Peters will be a force for the north in Wellington or whether his campaign is as hollow as the bus.
At a Kaikohe engineering supply shop, Wade, behind the counter, says the region's infrastructure is struggling. "If he can bring extra [investment] to Northland that's got to be good. But if he's just doing it for his own agenda that would be sad."
On the street, a Peters fan accepts the "old campaigner" is keener on hurting National than helping Northland but is adamant he would prove "outstanding" for the region.
How serious is the Peters threat to this rural National stronghold? Serious enough to scare the bejesus out of the Government.
National's Mike Sabin (whose January 30 resignation forced the byelection) captured 52 per cent of the votes last September; twice as many as his nearest rival. NZ First last fielded a candidate here in 2005. But polls place Peters neck and neck with National rookie Mark Osborne, who was wet-nursed around the electorate this week by the likes of Steven Joyce, Paula Bennett and John Key.
Since the scary polls, money has been found to replace 10 one-lane bridges - a few of which were previously scheduled, only for funding to be pulled. On Thursday, a previously announced funding boost for ultra-fast broadband was dressed up as new.
It's not just the spectre of a byelection loss in a safe seat. With 60 seats in Parliament, National can pass legislation with just one minor party vote. With 59, it would need two - meaning contentious reforms such as the latest assault on the RMA would not get through.
Labour leader Andrew Little saw this and virtually invited supporters to vote Winston.
Peters' campaign presses regional sorepoints, summed up by the call to arms on the side of the bus. Northland has been neglected. It is a leading export region yet it lags behind other regions in infrastructure, wage growth, education and jobs.
"We've got to make export provinces gods in this country like we used to," he tells patrons at the Mangonui Hotel. "They've forgotten who creates the wealth."
He is holding up his Northland roots. He's greeted like a rock star - women queue to be photographed with him, truck drivers stop to shake his hand. But just as you re-imagine him as an elder statesman, he picks a (verbal) fight with a man in a bar. The man walks out; everybody cheers.
Not everyone loves him: "He's been an MP for so long - what's he done for Northland?", says a manager in the hospitality trade. "I heard his speech [in Paihia] and was insulted by this man and his attitude."
Key tells Kerikeri audiences Peters doesn't care about Northland - he's just out to stitch-up National.
"If we lose you will wake up with a new MP in Invercargill." Such is MMP. The RMA reforms, even a free-trade agreement with Korea could be threatened, Key claims.
"It's a nice idea that Winston will be holding clinics [here] - it won't happen."
Peters retorts: "I've only been going 10 days and already I've got 10 bridges built."
Osborne says he deserves credit for the bridge funding and joins in the scaremongering: suggesting a "real risk" to the $1.75 billion Puhoi-Wellsford motorway if National loses.
Roads and bridges are all very well, say Karla Tawhi and Richard Moetata of Bouquets on Broadway in Kaikohe. What the struggling town needs is jobs to bring young people back with the wherewithal to support small businesses like theirs.
Key and Bennett urge National supporters to pick up the phone and tell 10, even 20, friends of Osborne's pedigree. But social media is pointing out his resemblance to Hoss Cartwright, the gentle giant (gentle, that is, until riled) of legendary western Bonanza. There's no getting away from it. At the Sauce cafe in Paihia, Bennett attacks the "razzmatazz and the Cheshire grin" and the "lack of substance" to Peters' campaign: "Quite frankly, [Osborne] is a man of substance."
Osborne tells audiences he's a big guy who won't go unnoticed in Parliament. Until a fortnight ago, he was the party's electorate treasurer. He may be a political novice but he has local credibility as the Far North District Council's infrastructure assets manager.
Labour's Willow-Jean Prime, a 32-year-old lawyer, is plugging away with walkabouts and community meetings; her party retains support in towns like Kawakawa, Kaikohe and Dargaville. She's a Far North District councillor and tells audiences this is her third election in 18 months - and she's the only survivor from last September.
But, as Osborne puts it: "Andrew Little has thrown Mrs Prime under Winston's bus."
Osborne has potential but he's not just up against Peters in his pomp. As Key points out, other parties are picking on National too.
But National's biggest problem is that many of its supporters want to send it a message. Around Wellsford, they're still steamed up over the law change to get Kaipara District Council out of the rates mess it created with the Mangawhai sewage scheme. Not to mention the forced amalgamation with Auckland.Across the seat, there's real hurt that voters weren't told before the September election that Sabin was under police investigation. The question dogs every campaign meeting: When exactly did National know? Osborne can offer only a Hoss Cartwright-like grimace while Key tells media in Kerikeri that National was bound by process.
Peters is merciless. The hugely-costly byelection could have been avoided, he tells patrons at the Mangonui Hotel, before hinting at more. "[But] I'm not here to spread malice and gossip ... "
If Peters wins on March 28, it won't be because of bridges and potholes and wealth disparities or the Cheshire grin. It will be because National voters felt taken for granted.
Mark Osborne (National):
• An asset manager for Far North District Council.
• Project-managed Te Ahu, Kaitaia's civic and cultural centre.
• Lives in Taipa, where wife Jodi runs a beauty clinic. They have two children: Keira (10) and Brie (6).
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour):
• Lawyer and consultant, aged 32.
• Grew up in Moerewa.
• A Far North District councillor since 2013; this is her third election campaign in 18 months.
• Married to school teacher Dion Prime. Their daughter, Hihana, was born in January.
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