Peters' Tauranga rival faces budget probe

An investigation has been launched into whether National's millionaire Tauranga candidate has overspent his campaign budget - an offence that could cost him the seat.

The inquiry by Chief Electoral Officer David Henry coincides with a Herald on Sunday-Phoenix poll today which shows Bob Clarkson eight percentage points ahead of Winston Peters in the NZ First leader's Tauranga stronghold. Equally as worrying for Mr Peters is a Fairfax-ACNielsen poll yesterday which for the first time showed NZ First dipping beneath MMP's critical 5 per cent threshold.

Faced with possible political oblivion, Mr Peters is expected on Wednesday to signal whether he wants to go into government or stay on the cross-benches - but he is unlikely to nominate Labour or National as a preferred bedmate.

First he has to get back into Parliament - and the electorate battle couldn't be closer.

However, Mr Clarkson faces questions over advertising including a three-page spread in the Bay of Plenty Times, paid for by other companies, which he was not planning to declare in his campaign returns. There is also advertising in the Tauranga giveaway, the Weekend Sun.

Twenty-one of the 24 Times advertisements praise Mr Clarkson: Firth wishes him "the very best of luck for the coming Tauranga MP election"; Total Fire Protection wishes him "success in all of his future plans"; Alpha Ceilings wishes him the best "for further positive projects throughout our area".

Mr Clarkson said he was spending only $16,000 on his election campaign - safely below the $20,000 spending limit - but acknowledged he was not counting the market value of "Bob Clarkson country" billboards and the newspaper spread.

Under the Electoral Act all advertising must be accounted for at market value, ignoring any discount.

One critic estimated the total value of his advertising and endorsements at more than $33,000.

Section 213 of the Electoral Act makes it an offence to directly or indirectly spend over the limit.

Mr Clarkson said his secretary had given the newspaper names and numbers for people who might pay to advertise in the feature, but had nothing else to do with it.

National's campaign strategists had said there was no problem. "I can't stop people being positive," he said. "Why are people embarrassed about having a few bucks? [Labour candidate] Sally Barrett keeps making remarks about my 'deep pockets'."

But Chief Electoral Officer David Henry said he would seek answers from Mr Clarkson this week: "It's not completely straightforward but I think at least some of it would be applicable to the campaign," he said.

"I'm going to want to know the circumstances - who paid for it, who designed it. I want to know about its authorisation."

Total Fire Protection area manager Darren Hita said he had a good working relationship with Mr Clarkson, who had given him a lot of business, and his company had paid about $300 for its advertisement.

Alpha Ceilings managing director Dwarne Farley said he had paid about the same: "We've been working for Bob for quite a while and we feel he'd be a good MP."

On that basis the newspaper spread alone could be valued at more than $7000 - enough to push Mr Clarkson over the spending limits and jeopardise his election under Electoral Act provisions.

Meanwhile, today's Phoenix poll shows 56 per cent of Tauranga residents believe Mr Peters should indicate before the election whether he would work with Labour or National.

The Maori Party ruled out National last week, but United Future says it will talk first to whichever big party gets more votes.

The poll offers Mr Peters encouragement: 39 per cent of respondents would vote for him if that was what it took to return NZ First to Parliament - meaning it could be a tight battle with Mr Clarkson.

"It's a two-horse race. It always has been from a long way out, because of the amount of money that the National Party is spending on it," Mr Peters said. "I'm confident in the people of Tauranga and their sense of fair play. They know there's a lot of outside influence being thrown in here to get rid of me."

Phoenix Research director Jeanette du Plooy said a "curious twist" in the poll was that about one in six Labour supporters planned to vote for the National candidate, suggesting they were trying to stop NZ First's return.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY