Peters staring into the fight of his life

A group of grey-haired men wearing sunhats, checked shirts and vests are leaning on their spades, discussing the patchy lawns at the Tauranga Bowling Club.

Their greens, next to the leafy Tauranga Domain, were badly scorched by the harsh summer sun and they have to find a way to coax fresh new grass out of the baked soil in time for the opening of the bowling season in September.

They are doing the topdressing themselves this year because they only have a part-time greenkeeper on hand to give advice.

The club has fewer members than in the past because young people are not taking up the sport, meaning money is tight and they cannot afford a full-time expert to prepare their grounds.

The last thing on their minds is the general election.

"It's months away," they groan.

But mention the name Winston Peters and these men have plenty to say.

"He's a straight shooter."

"He always goes off with a hiss and a roar."

"He said he wouldn't do a deal with National and the bugger did."

This divided opinion about Peters is one of the reasons he faces the political fight of his life in a three-way contest that will echo far beyond the electorate itself.

He will have to draw on all the skills he has developed over the decades of his colourful political career to secure his position as Tauranga MP. At the last election he squeaked in with a 63-vote majority.

He also has to fight for the survival of his party, New Zealand First, which has consistently polled under the 5 per cent threshold needed to win list seats in Parliament.

If he wins his seat, he breathes another three years of life into NZ First and drags other MPs into Parliament on his coat-tails.

That would have major ramifications for the rest of the country and could even determine the shape of the next Government.

If Peters loses, it makes it much easier for Labour, given its present poll rating, to gain a majority in Parliament.

Both Labour and National want Peters out. They each have more natural potential coalition buddies and would be much happier not having to deal with him in light of their experience of the long-winded 1996 coalition talks.

But they are likely to be disappointed.

Tauranga is Peters' personal fiefdom.

A Herald-DigiPoll survey in Tauranga this week had Peters winning 40 per cent of electorate votes. This gave him more than twice the support of his closest rival, Labour, which scored 16 per cent. National were third on 15 per cent. Of the 462 people polled, 11 per cent did not know who they would vote for and 13 per cent were uncertain which candidate they would choose, but it would definitely not be Peters.

Peters predicts he is going to "shock" the other parties with his success.

"I'm ready and waiting for them [the other contenders]. People have a choice between experience and a proven track record against total inexperience."

Auckland University political scientist Dr Raymond Miller is not surprised by Peters' claims.

"Winston has a wonderful capacity to survive. He is an extremely resilient and formidable politician - one of the country's most wily campaigners," says Miller.

"He's a very good campaigner and has got the common touch. On TV he comes across as very angry, but people who meet him on the street are very impressed with him and his ability to relate. He has worked that constituency hard."

Which is just what he is doing the afternoon the Weekend Herald tracks him down in his electorate.

Outside, the Bay of Plenty sun beats down with the remnants of the balmy summer. Inside, Peters has spent the past couple of hours in his electorate office - a brick house on the corner of Third Ave and Davenport Rd - dealing with a mix of constituency concerns: education, exporting plans, benefit problems and a proposed ban on ferrets as pets.

One couple came from Hamilton to see him and their appointment ran way over time.

Peters is a bit annoyed because the next person waiting had to leave.

He wants his electorate agent Margaret Green to make sure the appointment has been rescheduled - after all, the person was a potential voter, unlike the couple who came from outside his electorate.

But it does not dent Peters' good mood.

He is, as always, impeccably dressed in a stylish double-breasted suit, red tie and matching handkerchief peeking from his top pocket.

He seems to be relatively well disposed towards spending a couple of hours with a journalist - a member of the industry he loves to hate and bait.

Peters believes the media unfairly targeted him during the last election and were responsible for slashing his support in the few weeks leading up to polling day.

But we put that behind us as we head along Davenport Rd, down Fraser St to his next appointment, at Tauranga Intermediate - the country's largest intermediate school with about 1160 pupils.

Peters meets briefly with principal Brian Diver for an update on plans for a group of students to visit China, and to discuss traffic problems caused by a nearby industrial development.

Then it is time for a tour of the school's facilities.

Peters is as well recognised here as he is among the old bowlers.

Students at the windows point and shout, "There's Winston", while teachers try to shush them.

He moves on to check out a new high-tech classroom where students do all their work on laptops. In the next room, he answers a few questions that would draw a tongue-lashing if journalists asked them.

"What's so good about you," asks one student.

"I can't answer that," is Peters' smiling reply. "There's an old saying that a kumara should never say how sweet it is."

"I've seen you on TV," another says.

"Did you used to be our Prime Minister?"

Peters replies he was once Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer.

He looks serene, happy. A local MP comfortable on home turf where he is known and liked.

This is not the same man seen angrily ranting from Parliament's crossbenches, bullying the Speaker and lambasting other MPs.

A personality switch seems to have occurred during the flight from Wellington to Tauranga.

The only flash of annoyance shows when questions are asked about his private life. He will not discuss whether he has any romantic connections.

"Have you?" he fires back.

But to test the validity of Peters' predictions of his own success at this year's election, you need to return to the traditional stamping ground of his supporters - the bowling greens.

Tauranga superannuitants were once Peters' staunchest supporters, but that link was weakened when he went into coalition with National in 1996.

Two of the bowlers the Weekend Herald spoke to withdrew their vote for Peters in the 1999 election as punishment for that deal and the subsequent messy Coalition breakdown. But they are beginning to warm to him again, saying that maybe he has done his time.

They are not sure exactly what he has achieved for them in the past three years. It is not easy to measure success when an MP is stuck on the crossbenches with little influence over legislation. But they admire the gutsy way he takes on the major parties.

Several other bowlers see him as an option because they do not like the alternatives, such as Labour candidate and cabinet minister Margaret Wilson. Tauranga's bowling clubs are obviously not fertile territory for a liberal female academic with ministerial responsibility for Treaty of Waitangi negotiations.

Raymond Miller agrees Wilson's Treaty role will not appeal to some Tauranga voters.

"Because of the age profile of the electorate, conservative Tauranga residents have expressed strong views on race relations."

Peters gets strong support from the elder community in terms of his stand on Maori/Pakeha issues.

And there is no getting away from the fact Peters has the advantage in terms of recognition factor.

If a completely unscientific survey of people strolling the streets of Tauranga is to be trusted, he will romp home.

Wherever he goes people call out to him, "Hey Winston", shake his hand, pat him on the back and say, "That's our man".

Last election it was National's Katherine O'Regan who mounted a major challenge to his hold on Tauranga.

This time he faces National newcomer Tim Macindoe and the more experienced threat of Labour's Margaret Wilson.

Last time, Wilson brought Labour from 15,000 votes behind Peters to within 700. She believes that if Labour had another month to campaign before the election, it could have overtaken Peters.

She seems confident of taking the seat this time, but has some reservations.

"I think we're a serious challenge. It's very difficult to predict how serious," she says. "We'll give it our best shot. Tauranga is not a natural Labour territory. Hopefully we can pull it off, but if we don't, we don't. It would certainly be quite unique if we did win it. It's a big ask."

Wilson says there was a mood for change three years ago and that is still evident.

"Look at Tauranga over time, it changed from National to NZ First, which indicates voters tend to be quite independent. They tend to break the moulds in a way. From that point of view, there aren't the same kind of predictable patterns you might find in other communities. And once voters tend to break their traditional patterns, then they're more likely to break them again."

Another possible factor in Labour or National's favour is the changing makeup of the city. Tauranga is still predominantly a place favoured by older New Zealanders. Large retirement homes are popping up all over the place, and last year's Census shows the Bay of Plenty had the largest internal migration gain for the over-65 category with 1836 new retirees setting up home there.

But there is a housing boom created by the migration of young families. The Bay of Plenty had the largest migration gain in the country in the 25-64 year age bracket with 7074 new residents.

Wilson believes the Government's record on addressing issues important to Tauranga residents is in her favour, including superannuation, regional development and transport.

National's Macindoe agrees these local issues will be the key to the election.

He believes he has the advantage over the other candidates in the coming months because they are tied up in Wellington with parliamentary work while he has Tauranga largely to himself. This will give him some freedom to sell National's solutions unopposed.

The bowlers at the Tauranga central club do not know much about Macindoe, so their opinion on him is reserved. They'll wait to see what he has to say before making a final judgment.

But they are annoyed to hear the schoolteacher moved into the area only a couple of months ago after winning the candidacy.

"If National was serious, they would have put someone in straight after the last election," says one. "I bet he's only renting too."

Peters has been the Tauranga MP since 1984. Wilson has lived in the city for four years.

Miller agrees with the bowlers that National really needed to establish a local presence in Tauranga early after the last election. "Otherwise there is a risk of being seen as a carpetbagger, coming in from the outside."

Macindoe moved to the Tauranga suburb of Gate Pa with his wife Anne and daughters Sarah, 11, and Jessica, 10, in March when he gave up his job as deputy principal at St Peter's private school, just outside Cambridge.

Macindoe is now campaigning fulltime, holding cottage meetings, beating the streets, shaking hands and selling the National message.

"This is costing me a lot of money. But I wouldn't have done this if I didn't think I could win," he says. "I've thrown everything away to back myself for this. Losing is not an option."

National is prepared to throw a lot of resources at Tauranga. Senior party members are moving in behind their new and inexperienced candidate to support him.

Leader Bill English, Roger Sowry, Wayne Mapp and party president Michelle Boag have all visited Tauranga in recent weeks.

Macindoe, a bright-eyed Bill English lookalike, will need all that support and more if he is to peg back Peters, given the Herald's early poll results.

Macindoe believes there are a lot of floating voters he could capture.

Several thousand votes went to minor parties last time, including more than 700 for Christian Heritage candidate Frank Grover.

Macindoe believes his Christian perspective on social issues as a practising Anglican makes those votes a fertile area.

He is also counting on intelligent Act voters to give him their personal vote while saving their party tick for Act.

Macindoe is worried about the possibility of an early election, saying he needs about four or five months, ideally up to eight months, to really lift his profile.

But he is eager and has a long history of working within the party hierarchy.

The 41-year-old has had two previous attempts at a National candidacy, in Port Waikato and Karapiro.

He was also on the National list in 1999 but too far down to be elected.

But politics has been a lifelong ambition. His parents were National Party members and Macindoe has wanted to be an MP since the age of 14, when he says the public service was seen as an "honourable calling".

He feels Parliament still has "mana" and is prepared to dedicate the next 12-15 years of his life to getting there.

But the problem for Macindoe is that he has never been politically blooded. And cutting your teeth on an experienced, politically astute operator like Winston Peters is a daunting task. Macindoe knows the campaign may get grubby but he says he can hack it.

He had his first taste of a Peters-style attack when his caravan, plastered with party advertising, was spotted parked at Anzac Day celebrations.

Macindoe says he was simply looking for an unobtrusive spot to leave it while he attended the commemoration ceremony.

But the savvy Peters turned it into an article on the front page of the Bay of Plenty Times, lambasting the National candidate for politicking on a day of remembrance.

Macindoe really felt the sting of the negative publicity. But he is aware there is probably worse to come.

Whatever the campaign brings in Tauranga, the early view of voters seems to be that Peters is the man for them. As the Tauranga bowlers would say, the green, green grass of home is looking even greener for Winston Peters.