New Zealand First leader Winston Peters looks set to be Bob the Builder's breakfast in his one-time stronghold of Tauranga - but he is not admitting defeat.
Today's Herald on Sunday-Phoenix poll of 400 people shows National's Bob Clarkson has widened the gap on Mr Peters since last week.
He is up from 39 per cent to 42 per cent, while Mr Peters is static on 31 per cent.
Asked whether he had given up hope of holding the seat, Mr Peters said: "You must be joking."
Exactly 50 per cent of respondents were in favour of Mr Peters' promise, announced on Wednesday, that he would remain outside any coalition, but would not stand in the way of National or Labour leading a government. But that endorsement does not look enough to help him hold his hometown, the poll indicates.
A coinciding Herald on Sunday-DigiPoll shows NZ First polling only a hair's breadth above MMP's 5 per cent threshold, as the party faces an even greater challenge to its survival than the collapse of its 1996 coalition with National.
Mr Clarkson, a first-time political candidate, land developer and self-made multimillionaire, appears unharmed by last week's revelation that Chief Electoral Officer David Henry is investigating newspaper endorsements that could push him over the campaign spending limits.
Yesterday, Mr Henry would say only that the inquiry into Mr Clarkson's endorsements was proceeding.
His office pointed to a statement issued earlier in the week: "The Chief Electoral Officer carries out a preliminary inquiry into complaints made to him and if he believes an offence has been committed ... he refers the matter to the police for investigation and, if appropriate, prosecution."
Mr Peters, who was yesterday campaigning in Otara, said the polls had been "all over the place" and he took no notice of them.
"I listen to what people are saying in the streets. Don't worry about it, I'm relaxed. We'll see who's right or wrong on election day. "
- HERALD ON SUNDAY
Peters positive, despite poll
Winston Peters
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