Peters factor keeps Tauranga seat in the spotlight

Will Tauranga fall for the flattery of an unbelievable parade of suitors or will she stick to a man pilloried and praised in almost equal amounts?

This trigger seat of New Zealand politics once again has the chance to exert an influence far beyond her size.

She is being courted with a passion that almost defies belief, as Labour and National luminaries descend daily into an electorate that has become one of the most interesting in New Zealand politics, thanks to one man -- New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

Mr Peters would like to think he has made Tauranga his own. The amazing Houdini act in the last election, when he slipped through the middle by the barest winning margin, probably justifies his confidence.

In 1999, Mr Peters was battered and on the ropes. But he knew if he hung on until the final bell he had a chance.

National and Labour kindly gave him that chance by both campaigning strongly -- exactly as they are doing now -- except this time Mr Peters is not emerging humiliated from the wreckage of coalition government.

His steady-as-she-goes approach seems to be working and he is clearly bolstered by polls which give him 43 per cent of the candidate vote in Tauranga.

Nearly four weeks out from the election, his biggest threat is Labour's Margaret Wilson who is polling about 32 per cent. National's Tim Macindoe is off the pace on 19 per cent.

It was Labour's strong showing in 1999 that was almost Mr Peters' and New Zealand First's undoing. The comfortable majority he had held since selection for the safe National seat in 1984 -- and consequently for New Zealand First after he resigned from National -- fled to Labour.

Ms Wilson, an old chum of Prime Minister Helen Clark who was already destined for cabinet because of her steely intellect and high place on Labour's list, almost surprised herself by coming within 700 votes of winning Tauranga. And she didn't really give it her best shot.

It represented a huge turnaround on 1996 and Labour's traditional lowly status in Tauranga. Ms Wilson should take heart from her present polling. She is already 4 percentage points ahead of her 1999 result.

While she clearly lacks the soapbox charisma of Mr Peters , Ms Wilson has made her home in Tauranga and demands respect for her influence within the Government and her hard work.

Tauranga always has, and always will have, a solid National rump, so it is entirely expected that support for Mr Macindoe will increase over the 19 per cent he polled two weeks ago.

National's candidate for the last election, Katherine O'Regan, garnered 30 per cent of the 1999 vote and this was from a list MP who barely kept the seat warm and was on the outer during the Shipley era. The Act party did not even field a candidate, unlike this time when workplace trainer Ron Scott is standing.

By most yardsticks, Mrs O'Regan gave a poor performance. Given that electoral boundary changes shrank the number of electors by 8 per cent, National was simply treading water and failed to pick up any of the huge rebound away from Mr Peters.

If she had picked up just 64 of these votes, she would have won the seat. It is a point that won't be lost on Mr Macindoe.

This former deputy school principal has boldly thrown in his lot to try to dislodge Mr Peters. He shows up in all the right places, is a keen bidder in charity auctions and is working diligently in a seat National regards as "critical".

But do Mr Macindoe or Ms Wilson have the winning edge -- that stomach for the type of stoush that would topple the mercurial leader of New Zealand First?

Mr Peters retained the seat even when his political fortunes were at their lowest ebb in 1999, so it's odds on that this survivor will go on surviving and bring in more MPs on his New Zealand First coat tails.

Electorate boundary changes announced last year will impact more on Labour's vote than National or New Zealand First. The Labour-leaning areas of Arataki, Waimapu and Poike shifted into Tony Ryall's sprawling Bay of Plenty electorate.

In the unlikely event support dissipated for Mr Peters in Tauranga, it would surely be reflected in his party's showing around the country. But if the buoyant mood continues, New Zealand First can be confident about picking up considerably more than the 4 per cent of the party vote it won in 1999. It was enough then for four list candidates to join Mr Peters in Parliament.

There is no prospect of New Zealand First returning to the heady days of 1996 when it won 13 per cent of the party vote and put 17 MPs into Parliament, including a clean sweep of the Maori seats.

But there is a real possibility it will secure enough of the party vote to win seven seats in the Parliament. Mr Peters' outspoken comments on immigration, the Treaty of Waitangi and boot- camp discipline always find a ready audience, particularly among an older generation that wonders what is happening to the society they fought for.

It is this MMP factor, driven by Mr Peters' oratory, which is making the major parties -- and Labour in particular -- view Tauranga as pivotal.

If Labour does not hold its present level of support -- and big leads in early polls usually fall away -- it will be left casting around for a coalition partner to augment Progressive Coalition leader Jim Anderton.

The Green Party is capitalising on people's genetic engineering (GE) fears, particularly among Maori. It secured 5 per cent of the party vote last time without playing the GE card to anywhere near the extent it has now. The Greens' message has a strong appeal to the young, so even if Green co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons fails to hold Coromandel, the party will probably pass the 5 per cent threshold needed to win seats in Parliament.

The Greens have selected 39-year-old Katikati organic kiwifruit orchardist Ian Douglas as its candidate for Tauranga. His party credentials stretch back to 1990 when he stood for Roskill. Since then he has played a backroom role.

It is beyond comprehension that the Greens will hop into bed with National and Act. Although they have fallen out with Miss Clark, they still have a lot in common with the centre-left of New Zealand politics.

United Future New Zealand's candidate for Tauranga, Larry Baldock, could attract enough votes to sway things. His profile has grown enormously since he stood last time and polled better than the Greens. This hard-working Christian has made his mark since being elected to Tauranga District Council.

However, United Future must remain a bit player, like the Alliance which is still reeling from its divorce with Mr Anderton.

With Mr Peters ready to enter a coalition with whatever political party delivers on policies important to New Zealand First -- and which offers him some prestige -- the Tauranga electorate once again has the potential to make a big impact on the country's political landscape.

- BAY OF PLENTY TIMES

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