Peters faces Tauranga defeat

Winston Peters

New Zealand First is facing the possibility of obliteration at the election - and that may have favourable consequences for Act leader Rodney Hide in Epsom.

In Tauranga, NZ First Leader Winston Peters is trailing National rival Bob Clarkson by 12 percentage points, according to a One News Colmar Brunton poll last night, 45 per cent to 33.

And two more polls this weekend are thought to show the party below the crucial 5 per cent threshold in the party vote.

Gaining 5 per cent is vital to the party's survival if it loses Tauranga, its only electorate seat. If it keeps Tauranga but polls under 5 per cent in the party vote, it can claim its party vote entitlement, as happened in 1999. The party, which won 10.38 per cent last election and has 13 MPs, appears to have been squeezed this election by the tight contest between Labour and National and uncertainty as to what NZ First would do after the election.

The poll shock - and the possibility that National's largest potential coalition partner could disappear - could well change the dynamics on the centre right.

Some strategists suggested yesterday the polls might galvanise Mr Peters' supporters in the same way a similar poll in 1999 did which showed him well behind Katherine O'Regan in Tauranga.

It is expected to put pressure on National leader Don Brash to send stronger signals of approval for National voters to help to save the endangered Act party by securing the Epsom electorate for leader Rodney Hide. That is an option that Dr Brash is understood to be happy to contemplate if necessary, but most of the National Party board is thought to be strongly opposed.

Not only is one of its members the campaign manager for National incumbent Richard Worth but similar experiences in the past in Wellington Central and Ohariu Belmont have had a long-term damaging impact on the local party organisation. It is a decision the board will leave until the last few days of the campaign.

Dr Brash told reporters in Invercargill yesterday that it was too early to make such decisions.

"I'm clearly going to make a recommendation to that board, but at this point we're not contemplating any deals with any other political parties.

"If we are successful in building the National Party, then smaller parties by definition will reduce in size."

Asked about the possibility of losing Act as well, he said: "Well as long as it strengthens our party vote, that's fine."

In a bid to deprive National of coalition partners, Prime Minister Helen Clark this week gave her tacit approval for Labour voters in Epsom to vote for Dr Worth.

additional reporting Juliet Rowan