KEY POINTS:
Skilled workers are tipped to be the big winners as employers scramble to fill key positions this year.
Recruiters Hays and the Employers and Manufacturers' Association predict everyone from geologists to shop assistants will cash in on New Zealand's low unemployment.
"Even though we've seen the international markets pretty fraught, we still have a very strong demand for skilled workers in New Zealand, mainly because of the domestic economy," said Hays regional director Jason Walker. "We had record demand for vacancies coming through in the first three weeks of this year."
Walker said infrastructure and commercial construction would be the biggest winners, as airports were extended and Eden Park was upgraded for the 2011 Rugby World Cup. "Skilled professionals are also in demand in the power, gas, mining, oil and exploration industry."
An EMA wages survey in November found the biggest movers in the 2007 pay stakes were skilled shop workers. They topped a list of five job categories that got wage rises of more than 8 per cent.
"Skilled people have been the biggest movers year-on-year for quite some time," said EMA employment services manager David Lowe. "Which particular skills fluctuates from year to year."
Lowe said high salaries for skilled tradesmen look set to level off after huge increases in recent years. But middle-managers could breathe a sigh of relief with wages expected to catch up. "In previous years the poor cousins have been those in middle management who are skilled." Lowe said. "Some of them are having a market correction."
Lowe said employers were paying fair and competitive wages and putting more focus on achieving flexible working hours and healthier work-life balance for staff.
But Walker said that would not stop staff from capitalising on the 3.5 per cent unemployment rate.
Rising inflation would prompt workers to ask for more money - and to chase another job if they were turned down, he said. "There is more of a price-wage spiral, where, as the prices go up, so do the wages because we demand more. If you are skilled you can be out of a job and into a new one the week after."
Walker said most workers could expect increases of between 3 and 6 per cent, although those in areas of higher demand, such as IT, would get more.
Council of Trade Unions president Helen Kelly said employers shouldn't use talk of a recession to restrict pay increases.
"We shouldn't just look at the American market and say that's going to happen to New Zealand," she said. "Clearly, if America has a major meltdown it will affect us, but we're not the same in terms of mortgage reliability. We would say there's been a sustained period of growth and not all the profit of that is being shared with workers, and we don't expect all of the hardships of recession, if there is one, to impact on workers either."
Remuneration expert Kevin McBride said workers in sectors that had enjoyed big pay increases, such as human resources, could expect smaller rises this year.
He said workers were becoming wealthier by switching jobs more often rather than waiting for annual pay negotiations. "In the past you were better off to stay where you were because the [yearly] increases were higher," said the HR firm director who oversees CubikSurvey, New Zealand's largest commercial pay review.
"Now, ... employers are starting to offer more to encourage people away from their existing jobs into new jobs."
McBride said pay rises may take a small hit from compulsory KiwiSaver contributions starting April 1.
"What is likely to happen is employers will say if an employee is joining KiwiSaver that 1 per cent will come off their next pay increase," he said. "That will encourage employees and certainly unions to seek higher pay increases. And that is going to put pressure on employers."
BUOYANT FINANCIAL START TO NEW CAREER OF CARING
It's not just corporate high-flyers who command big pay rises.
Hollie Parkes was snapped up within two months of finishing her three-year nursing degree because of a dramatic skills shortage.
The 21-year-old scored a salary of $41,200 and expects that to surge to $58,000 within five years.
The orthopaedic nurse at Starship Children's Hospital doesn't expect to become a millionaire. But she has cashed in at the right time, as wages for registered nurses rose 9.1 per cent last year.
"The nation is in urgent need of more nurses," Parkes said. "The recruiting process was really nice and helpful because they desperately need people.
"Starship even offers a 10-month new graduate programme to attract workers.
"Nurses don't do this job for the money but compared to other years, to start on $41,200 a year is great.
