If the clock's ticking on the Eden Park factor, presumably the same is true of Qantas's safety record, which theoretically makes it an airline to avoid.
But we don't look at it that way. We assume excellent safety records don't happen by accident, as it were, and regard them as a good reason to choose a particular airline, rather then shun it.
Even as they recycle Henry Ford's dictum that history is more or less bunk, Aussies are quick to call it as a friendly witness.
Hence they point out the Wallabies have met the All Blacks twice in World Cup semifinals and won both times. And as they did in 1991, the Wallabies go into a semifinal against the All Blacks having just scraped through their quarter-final. (They beat Ireland 19-18.)
The canny Kiwi will point out that the roles were reversed in 2003: then it was Australia hosting the tournament and the All Blacks coming off a bruising quarter-final against South Africa. Although the scoreboard made it look easy - the All Blacks won 29-9 - that game took a heavy toll, as Tana Umaga later revealed: "It was a sapping game for us, physically and mentally. The guys were sore afterwards and when players are still trying to come right physically, it detracts from their mental state.
"I noticed a difference in the preparation for the semifinal: the intense focus on the Springboks wasn't
really replicated."
Kiwi, Aussie or neutral, optimist, pessimist or fatalist, there are theories out there to suit your state of mind and reinforce your hopes or fears. Some are based on history, some on analysis, some on gut instinct and, quite possibly, some on chicken entrails. In the end, most boil down to guesswork and wishful thinking.
The analysts tend to assume the past is a reliable guide to the future: that form will hold, the stars will shine and the weak links will break. But sport doesn't always stick to the script. Reflecting on the All Blacks' loss to France in the 1999 semifinal, coach John Hart noted that the team's three best performers at the tournament - Umaga, Andrew Mehrtens and Jeff Wilson - "played probably the worst 20 or 30 minutes of their careers".
Those who suspect that higher - possibly malign - forces are at work saw this confrontation as inevitable from the moment the NZRU reappointed Graham Henry, sending Robbie Deans into ARU boss John O'Neill's arms. Those who believe in karma might wonder if the vast weight of negative emotional energy generated by angst over the All Blacks' prospects if Dan Carter got injured somehow came to bear on his groin.
This week someone plaintively asked me: "Wouldn't it be nice not to care?" He finds All Black matches so stressful that he's taken to watching them by himself in a darkened room.
But should the All Blacks lose, he'll be over it by lunchtime the next day, as we all should be. Sport matters intensely, but just for a little while: as long as it takes to remember that it's only a game.
According to an Australian newspaper report, New Zealanders were in "a state of panic" that Richie McCaw might miss the match. No, we weren't. With all due respect to the All Black captain, we were far more concerned about the potential catastrophe unfolding off the Bay of Plenty coast.
