An influenza epidemic would overwhelm Pacific island countries unless they had international help, New Zealand public health researchers say.
Pacific island medical facilities would be swamped by a major flu outbreak, Nick Wilson and colleagues wrote in this month's issue of the American journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
They said a
flu epidemic was likely, if not inevitable, and could cause up to 1530 deaths in Pacific island nations.
The researchers used a model called FluAid to look at the effect of an eight-week epidemic on the small countries.
Up to 8250 people would be hospitalised and there would be up to 563,000 medical consultations, well beyond current capacity, Dr Wilson said.
The biggest demand for hospital beds would be in Guam, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands and Tonga, the study found.
The researchers recommended Pacific countries organise contingency plans, and that the World Health Organisation help with planning and capacity building.
Neighbouring countries such as New Zealand should also give support to improve surveillance and other preventive measures, Dr Wilson said.
The 1918 influenza pandemic killed many people in the South Pacific, including up to 22 per cent of the population of Samoa.
It was hard to predict how virulent a new influenza virus would be, Dr Wilson said.
The potential use of influenza as a bio-weapon was also a concern, although influenza "is quite a long way down on the list compared to other potential bio-weapons."
- NZPA
