ANALYSIS:
Ten years ago then-United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke to the Pacific Islands Forum, promising to spend more, partner more, and be there "for the long haul".
Fast-forward a decade and US Vice President Kamala Harris has spoken again to the Forum - the sums of money involved and level of promised engagement are higher, but the rhetoric remains largely the same.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern referred to this general interest from major world powers as a bit of a "wax and wane", saying their interest in the region comes and goes. She was not just talking about the United States.
Nothing new here, essentially.
But it is new. For 2022 is a vastly different geopolitical landscape to 2012.
China has undoubtedly stepped up its presence in the region, achieving first a security pact with the Solomon Islands and then - unsuccessfully for now - pursued a much broader regional deal.
It has also pressured smaller nations over their position on recognising Taiwan.
This scale-up has clearly sparked renewed interest from the US and Australia, whose relations dropped away in recent years, and to a lesser extent New Zealand, which has maintained relations despite the interruption of the pandemic.
That United States "long haul" rhetoric for many nations was beginning to wear thin, particularly after four years under Donald Trump undoing all of the groundwork on climate change.
Harris noted this in her speech, promising, "a new chapter in our partnership".
What Harris announced on Wednesday - new embassies, NZ$1 billion in funding, new partnerships and presence - is undoubtedly big. The question is if the rhetoric will be matched with action and longevity.
Some Pacific leaders have tentatively supported the move. Fijian PM and Forum chair Frank Bainimarama called it "very welcome" and Ardern noted some of the initiatives had been called for, "for a long time".
New Zealand-based geopolitical experts are unequivocal the move was timed to send a signal to China, which itself was barred access to the Forum.
"This is very much about the US seeking to position itself as the partner of choice in the Pacific," said Dr Anna Powles, a Massey University expert in Pacific security.
"It is also about the US signalling to China even though both US and China are dialogue partners the US has managed to secure an audience."
But the manner in which it was done, at a time when the Forum itself was attempting to restore unity and had long spoken about addressing geopolitical issues regionally, could unsettle some Pacific members.
It also comes the day before the leaders' retreat, when regional issues are hashed out.
"A key principle of Pacific Island politics is 'respect'," said Dr Iati Iati, Pacific security fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington.
"And the US have now shown that they do not understand this principle and do not respect the desire for a neutral and independent space for geopolitical discussions.
"In my view, this could backfire. Those Pacific countries that may have been neutral will now see the US and its allies' true colours.
"The Kiribati withdrawal demonstrates they do not have to be part of the Forum to pursue their interests. After this Harris intervention, other countries might contemplate a similar move."
Former Kiribati President Anote Tong told the Herald the US initiatives were "welcome" and "long overdue", particularly the US envoy and re-establishing USAID, but cautioned they needed to follow through or risk losing respect and influence to China.
China had an increasing presence in his country, Tong said, and while nothing had been said publicly, he believed its split from the Forum could be due to the government moving closer to Beijing.
"I think this [announcement] is a sign the US is seriously worried," Tong said.
"It is a different China today to 10 years ago, and it poses a real threat to US supremacy and dominance in the region."
The most important thing, Tong said, was that the US followed through.
"This has happened before. We don't need broken promises, propaganda, we need concrete action on the ground. And if the US wants to counter China, that is what is needed."
While Harris referred to climate change in her speech, there was no funding or actions tied to it. Tong said this needed to change and fast.
"Security and militarisation might be their concern, but for us it is climate change."
The place of New Zealand in this moving geopolitical landscape remains to be seen.
New Zealand has more closely aligned itself with the US in recent months, with an agreement signed in Washington followed by Partners of the Blue Pacific, along with Australia, Japan and the United Kingdom.
Ardern said some of the United States initiatives would be welcome, but also cautioned the need for Pacific countries to take a "family approach" to dealing with the increased "assertiveness" of the circling superpowers.
Ardern has spent the week in much-needed face-to-face bilaterals, including with Fiji and the Solomons.
She's also announced a range of support on climate and social issues, while consistently referencing the $1.3b climate financing fund, with half going to the Pacific (far higher per capita than any other country in the region).
She's spoken at length of the need for unity and the "Pacific family" and respecting autonomy and sovereignty.
She's sought to make sure any "wane" applied to New Zealand's support in recent years is addressed rapidly.
The closer New Zealand aligns itself to the United States though, the less of a "wane" she will be hoping to see from the superpower.
