Pace hot among jostling also-rans

By COLIN JAMES

It's a three-horse race among the minors: the Greens are well ahead of Act and New Zealand First, but those two parties have also picked up as the campaign has gained them voter attention.

The Greens' lift on the chart, which averages the four national polls, follows the emphasis given to genetic modification (GM) this past month.

The rolling average - 8.5 per cent - suggests their support may have plateaued, but the prominence given GM this past week by a new anti-GM group may yet boost them close to their 10 per cent target.

This poses a tactical problem for Labour. The more Labour demonises the Greens, the more the Greens' support might actually rise.

On the road this week Helen Clark has hardly mentioned the National Party, concentrating her attention on the Greens as the most serious threat to her bid for a majority government.

The other partner in that government, Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition, has lifted its rating close to the point where Mr Anderton would bring Matt Robson back in with him.

Overall, the Government's average is 53 per cent, with Labour at 52 per cent. This is slightly down from the highs in May and June but still 5 per cent clear of what it needs for a majority (assuming the total vote of parties which don't win seats is around 5 per cent).

National's average has fallen to 26 per cent, seriously below its 30.5 per cent in the 1999 election.

But there is a flicker of good news. Its partner, Act (averaging 5.5 per cent and rising), looks likely to finish above the 5 per cent party vote threshold that qualifies it for list seats.

And Winston Peters is coming up behind Act on the back of his emphasis on immigration. His New Zealand First Party's latest average of 4.3 per cent (its 1999 election score) shows that it might top 5 per cent. It adds to the likelihood that he will win Tauranga.

For Labour, Mr Peters potentially provides a partial antidote to the Greens, though one they would prefer not to have to use.

The Alliance (average 0.6 per cent) and Christian Heritage (0.6 per cent) are out of the race. There is still no polling evidence that Peter Dunne, who will get into Parliament by winning the Ohariu-Belmont electorate, will lift his liberal-plus-Christian coalition enough to give him a benchmate. For that he needs around 1.2 per cent and his United Future Party's average is 0.6 per cent.

The four-poll rolling average is of the four national polls - Herald-DigiPoll, TV One-Colmar Brunton, UMR-Insight and TV3-NFO. The latest update is an average of polls by all four organisations taken late last month and this month.

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