On that basis, it is likely to be more evident in the South Island than the North Island. But that doesn’t mean the thesis doesn’t hold in the North Island - it is likely there’s just a bigger spread in our southern regions. There are believed to be physiological reasons for the seasonality.
This is called the “temperature-aggression theory”. When people are hot, they become uncomfortable and tend to toward a greater degree of aggression. It gets hot, and people get mad. Some New Zealand research has shown this is particularly true when the temperature jumps unexpectedly and people aren’t as prepared for it. These things make sense for the violent crime thesis, but not so much for property offending.
Here we find a different explanation, which we call the “routine activities theory”. In the summer months, behaviours change greatly. We have long holiday periods and are away from home, and people are generally out and about a lot more. This means there are more opportunities for interactions (that turn violent) and more opportunities for property crime to occur, both because of empty houses and businesses, but also fewer people watching who might create a barrier to opportunistic criminal endeavours.
This means if you’re going out, it’s worth taking a few steps to make it look like somebody might be home, and if you are at home, it’s a good idea to do what you can to show you’re at home, and could plausibly see if anyone were to break into your neighbours’ homes. Property crime is all about opportunity, so deterring would-be thieves can be as simple as giving them the impression there are “capable guardians” around who could spot them and ruin the party.
So while you read this, almost certainly stuffed full of food and Christmas cheer, you do exist in a season where crime is more likely to occur. But it’s important to keep this in context. While I encourage you to ensure your property is secure when you head out anywhere and let your neighbours know you’re away, New Zealand is a safe country and it’s best not to become too paranoid.
Furthermore, not all Christmas crimes are catastrophic. Take, for example, the case of Joe Kohlhofer, an Austrian breakfast radio host who lost his mind back in 2015. At the start of his show at 8am, he barricaded the studio by jamming a chair against the door, locking out his co-host. He then proceeded to start playing Wham’s Last Christmas - not just once, but on repeat.
He eventually played it 24 times, only stopping when the radio station put a call through from his young daughter, who said she didn’t like the song. In fairness, after 24 rotations, nobody liked the song.
This is my last column for 2023. I hope you’re having a merry Christmas full of Christmas songs and nothing more serious. Have a terrific end to the year; I look forward to seeing you back in the paper in 2024.
Dr Jarrod Gilbert is the director of independent research solutions and a sociologist at the University of Canterbury.
