Opinion: How climate change affects food security

Crispin Miranda, project manager of the Cabuynan Farmers Association, says about 90 per cent of the local coconut farmers' trees were wiped out in last November's typhoon. Photo / Oxfam

With climate change set to reduce food production up to two per cent per decade for the rest of the century, it’s time to work on strategies to feed a growing population – including eliminating waste.

It has been a good season for New Zealand winegrowers, with the grapes benefiting from the hot dry summer. The same conditions have meant many dairy farmers have dried off their herds earlier.

We're used to factoring in the effects of weather on many of our foods, but what happens when the climate changes? If conditions become too hot or cold or wet or dry, can we replace traditional crops? What happens when extreme weather events seem the new normal?

The recently-released fifth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates climate change will reduce average crop yields by between zero and two per cent per decade for the rest of the century. Demand is set to increase by about 14 per cent per decade.

International development organisation Oxfam says the IPCC report shows the global food system is unprepared to cope with the challenge.

Sarah Meads, Oxfam NZ's senior policy adviser, says many countries are unprepared for the impact of climate change on food security, and it's the world's poorest and most food insecure that are most at risk.

In our region, production of the staple sweet potato in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands could halve by 2050. Production of maize in Vanuatu and Timor Leste is predicted to decline by six per cent to 14 per cent.

In the Philippines, November's Typhoon Haiyan wiped out the livelihoods of 20,000 fishing households and destroyed mangroves and coral reefs, which are important breeding grounds for fish.

Things can be done. Vietnam, Ghana and Malawi are among countries bucking the trend by taking action in areas such as social protection, crop irrigation and agricultural investment.

While much of the research into food security is looking at increasing production and crop yields, Lincoln University's Centre for Food Research and Innovation is looking at another angle.

The centre's associate director Dr Malik Hussain says more than a third of all food produced globally for human consumption is wasted because of spoilage, food safety problems and loss of food quality.

"Minimising these losses means a significant improvement in food supply," he says.

The clostridium botulinum food scare in whey milk powder and the PSA disease in kiwifruit vines are examples of how food safety and quality issues also affect global food supply.

Hussain, a senior lecturer in food microbiology, says microorganisms and their activities are important throughout the food supply chain.

"A good understanding and manipulation of microorganisms is crucial to develop new strategies for greater yields, reduction of spoilage losses and ensuring access to safe and nutritious food."

What's the problem - and the possible solutions?

Oxfam's report Hot and Hungry: How to stop climate change derailing the fight against hunger assessed 10 areas of national and global food and climate policy.

Adaptation finance: At the 2009 Copenhagen summit, world leaders promised to pay poor countries $30 billion between 2010 and 2012 - balanced between adapting to the changing climate and mitigating or reducing CO2 emissions. Less than 20 per cent of the money went to adaptation, which experts estimate was probably only about two per cent of what was really needed.

Social protection: The poorest people spend the highest proportion of their income on food, so programmes like school feeding, cash transfers and employment guarantee schemes are a proven way of ensuring access to food.

Food crisis aid: Over the past decade, the UN received about two thirds of the funds it sought for humanitarian aid. The cost of aid is increasing, and so is the annual shortfall. More extreme weather events will put a greater burden on an overstretched system.

Food stocks: Food stocks to food consumption is falling to historically low levels. Developing countries need to build their own local, national or regional public reserves to prevent shortages and price shocks.

Gender: Women make up 43 per cent of the agricultural workforce in developing countries and play a vital role in food production and preparation. Adaptation efforts carried out with women in mind results in improved yields and greater food security.

Public agricultural investment: In 2003 African leaders committed to spend 10 per cent of their national budgets on agriculture. A decade later just four out of 20 countries are meeting that target.

Agricultural research: An Oxfam sample of food insecure counties found they were spending an average of 0.5 per cent of agricultural output on research and development, compared with three per cent in high income countries.

Crop irrigation: Over 80 per cent of agriculture worldwide and 95 per cent of African agriculture is rain-fed, meaning it's at the mercy of the climate. Sustainable irrigation is critical in a warming world where seasons are less predictable.

Crop insurance: The majority of farmers across the globe are not covered by crop insurance, which means extreme weather events can leave them with nothing to restart production.

Weather monitoring: Good weather data allows farmers to respond to a changing climate, but the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts on food have the lowest concentration of weather stations.

The Climate Change Solutions series is a joint project between Element and Lincoln University, which runs Food and Resource Economics as one part of its Bachelor of Commerce.