KEY POINTS:
It's been a great summer for beach lovers, a painful one for farmers, but whatever you like to do on a sunny Saturday, the fine weather is almost over.
Just one more anti-cyclone, bringing warm dry weather, was expected over Auckland early next month before the winter chill hit, MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt told the Herald yesterday.
March had been warm enough to be classed as another month of summer, with a raft of anti-cyclones keeping the weather finer than usual, he said. Waikato and Taranaki had experienced especially dry weather.
Timaru sweated under its hottest March day on record, with 34C recorded on March 19. Auckland has baked under March highs of 27C this year with a low of 13C so far.
Just 33mm of rain has fallen on the city this month to date - the monthly average is about 100mm.
But rain is forecast for this weekend, probably Sunday and, following next month's anti-cyclone, it will be time for the brollies and beanies, Mr McDavitt says.
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said the country's Indian summer had come from the ongoing La Nina pattern - the first full-scale La Nina since 1998.
Water temperatures around the north of the North Island had stayed above 20C. March weather had been warm before, but this one was well above average, he said.
The La Nina pattern, bringing warm, dry weather and easterly winds to the east of the country, was expected to continue until May, but whether it stayed throughout winter was still unknown, he said.
Meanwhile, many farmers had been suffering, said Federated Farmers dairy section chairman Frank Brenmuhl.
"This will be life-changing for some farmers, particularly for those in areas that haven't really ever had droughts."
In previous years Waikato farmers had jokingly called dry stretches of seven days "droughts".
"But this time they really are suffering and some farmers are losing hundreds of thousands of dollars."
So far the cost of the drought had been estimated at $1.2 billion.
Ken Ring, who uses lunar cycles to predict weather, said yesterday that the first week of April would bring an icy blast across the country.
Snow would fall on Mt Ruapehu and would sprinkle other elevated areas, he said.
"Winter's going to come very quickly this year."
10-YEAR HIGH
* The weather over Easter really was the best for years.
* Easter 2008: March 21-24: Sunny, hot, mostly dry.
* Easter 2007: April 6-9: Wet, mild, clearing as the weekend progressed.
* Easter 2006: April 14-17: Fine start, wet end.
* Easter 2005: March 25-28: Tornadoes, torrential rain, frost.
* Easter 2004: April 9-12: Cold, hail, snow in places.
* Easter 2003: April 18-21: Stormy, wet, windy.
* Easter 2002: March 29-April 1: Stormy, wet, windy.
* Easter 2001: April 13-16: Wind, rain.
* Easter 2000: April 21-24: Thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail.
* Easter 1999: April 2-5: Mild, settled weather.
Hot, dry Easter all thanks to La Nina
It's Good Friday at the beach. The sea is full of splashing swimmers, the sand is covered in a patchwork of bronze bodies and technicolour towels.
Summer at Easter? Is this global warming before our eyes? And if so, is it really all that bad? The short answer is no, at least on the first point.
The last time Easter fell this early in the year was 1913 but this March has, admittedly, been warm and dry.
From Waikato to Taranaki, a savage drought has persisted. Auckland's rainfall is just a third of the March monthly average, with less than a week of the month to go.
But that did not point to global warming, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said yesterday.
Weather is cyclical. We are feeling the warm, dry effects of a strong La Nina, just as we did in 1998.
And in March 1998, "drought" and "sweltering" were thrown around as often as they have been this year.
Events like this "just happen every now and again", MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said.
And if the water temperature in the Indian Ocean remains warmer than normal over the next few months, our Indian summer will continue.
If warmer, drier summers did become the New Zealand norm, farmers would adapt, said Federated Farmers dairy section chairman Frank Brenmuhl.
Grasses capable of growing in the new conditions would be sown. There was no point planting them now, for the odd rogue season, but a gradual change in climate would see farmers change to seed better suited to the conditions, he said.
The country's agricultural sector could even be enhanced by a rise in average temperatures as the key for farmers was not temperature, but water availability.
Mr Brenmuhl said despite some regions suffering this season, New Zealand was using just 7 per cent of its available fresh water supply.
Other countries operated far more efficiently because necessity demanded it whereas New Zealand had never had to. With improvements to how water was stored and made available, farmers would be less at risk of climate change.
That's not to serve, however, as encouragement for polluters. But perhaps if the summers do stay warmer, eventually we'll all be happier.
