Herald reporter Simon Collins has been on the road for three weeks conducting a one-man poll. From Cape Reinga to Fiordland, he questioned 600 New Zealanders, face-to-face on the streets.
Read his reports in the Herald and on nzherald.co.nz, and check out our photo galleries showing what ordinary people are saying ahead of the election.
KEY POINTS:
Something is going badly wrong for parents in the Bay of Plenty town of Maketu, the historic landing place of the Arawa canoe.
Locals Dyanna Martin, 55, and Treena Radcliffe, 36, say gangs of teenagers as young as 12 and 13 are "trying to take over the community".
"They are going round kicking the signposts down, and the fence around the fish and chip shop, and tagging," Mrs Martin says.
"The adults need to step up, put a size 12 steel-capped boot on, and boot some arses."
The two women say the local intermediate and high schools in Te Puke have failed Maketu's youths who are now aged 18 to 20.
"They were expelled. That era was pretty bad for the young Maori students," they say.
"It's not so bad now, there seems to be a lot more support for the younger ones. There's a new principal, he's made a big difference. He's brought in a lot more schemes for the Maori students - more one-on-one tuition and a lot more teacher aides."
But work is still hard to find for the older youths. Mrs Martin's son, 18, can't find a job even in the booming kiwifruit industry which brought in workers from the Pacific Islands to fill labour gaps this year.
"He'll do anything. He'll sweep a floor if he has to," Mrs Martin says.
"He wants so many things but he can't get them because he's got no money. He's a hunter but he can't afford the gas to get out there."
Maketu may be an extreme case, but parents everywhere this year tell of battling with schools to get help for their children, and struggling for family time at home while paying off a house and putting food on the table.
Inevitably, the incumbent Government cops some of the blame. Although Mrs Martin and Mrs Radcliffe are staying loyal to Labour, this survey confirms other polls that have found National slightly stronger than average in the main parenting age groups from 30 to 50.
"I just feel it's time for a change," says Janet Corbett, 31, a fulltime mum of two preschoolers in Manukau's Half Moon Bay. "Things that Labour have promised haven't really happened. Twenty hours' free [early childhood education] doesn't seem to be a reality because most childcare centres can't afford to offer it."
Tauranga supply manager Jack Herder, 51, also voting National, says: "We introduce systems that are broad lowest-common-denominator, rather than pushing and accelerating people that have the ability."
Labour-voting Kim Morrison, 38, says her son needed a special class for gifted children but she could not get his need met at his local Ngaruawahia High School. The family had to move him to another school in Huntly.
"I believe that to a degree it's because we are European. They seem to be more helpful with other races," she says.
By chance, this survey also came across a Ngaruawahia High School teacher, Lalita Hari, 66, who is switching from the Maori Party to Labour this year because of what Labour has done for schools in poor areas.
"I work in a decile 1 [poorest] school. There is always not enough funding," she says.
"But in terms of what's available to kids in decile 1, it's far better than it has been, and I've been teaching for 40 years.
"Two-thirds of the students have special needs or learning needs such as reading difficulties. It's about showing them that the whole world is not a little place like Ngaruawahia. Some of them have never been to Auckland."
In all income groups, many parents feel forced to work longer hours than they prefer.
"Things are becoming quite expensive so you have to work harder," says Levin father and feed mill worker Tony McGregor, 39.
"I put in lots of hours just to get by, 70 hours in a good week. I'm up for weekend work as well if it's available. I sold my car three weeks ago so I don't have to buy petrol, and now I walk to work. It saves me $40-$50 a week."
Christchurch tyre salesman Chris Smith, 46, says his two daughters are his "big thing" in life, but he doesn't see enough of them.
"I'm having to work six days a week. That only gives me one day a week for home maintenance and family time," he says. "My wife works fulltime as well, just to survive."
Even better-off families living on one income say it's a struggle.
"We are just getting by. We are not getting any better off," says Tara Carroll, 34, a Howick fulltime mum for her children aged 4 and 2. She admires Helen Clark but is voting National.
"I disagree with Labour that they are pushing mothers to go back to work rather than encouraging mothers to stay at home with their children," she says.
"I think they focus on the lower income-earners, which is great, but you feel there is no incentive for those with a mortgage trying to get ahead."
How the survey works:
This article, and others to follow this week, are based on 600 interviews from Cape Reinga to Fiordland, mainly in the streets, between September 2 and 21.
Everyone was shown a card saying, "On the things that matter most, I'd rate the current state of New Zealand as: 7/Excellent, 6/Very good, 5/Good, 4/Okay, 3/Poor, 2/Very poor, 1/Awful." People were then asked to explain why they made their choice.
They were also shown the reverse of the card, listing all 20 parties registered with the Electoral Commission as at September 2. They were asked which party they were thinking of giving their party vote to, and why.
Interviews in Auckland (32 per cent), the rest of the North Island (41 per cent) and the South Island (27 per cent) reflected the voting populations in those regions.
Women made up 51 per cent and men 49 per cent.
Europeans made up 72 per cent of the sample, Maori 14 per cent, Asians 7 per cent, Pacific people 6 per cent and others 1 per cent, all within 1 per cent of their numbers in the population.
The sample had the correct share of young voters under 30 (21 per cent). There were slightly too many people aged 30 to 49 (42 per cent, against 40 per cent in the voting-aged population), and slightly too few aged 50-plus (37 per cent against 39 per cent).
