KEY POINTS:
Winston Peters starts mall-walking. It's lunchtime in Palmerston North's Plaza. This mission starts quietly.
Peters hovers, flicks through a children's book on a sale trestle. He makes small talk with a jewellery shopkeeper about some torn carpet. Then it starts. Someone asks him to pose for a photograph. Others want to shake his hand.
"Winston," they say, "keep it up mate", "What are you doing here?" or "You've got my vote."
Chrissie Edmonds, a 51-year-old grandmother of six, says she has always voted for Peters. "He is so primo that guy, I just love him to pieces, eh. He reminds me of my mum's brother."
Chrissie says the donations imbroglio hasn't put her off. "He got caught. And what? How many people have done it and haven't got caught. He's still him, he's still got the heart where it should be."
Peters cruises on. The Weekend Herald counts at least one in every 20 people giving him support during the 45-minute circuit. On election day that would give him the 5 per cent he needs to stay in Parliament.
"1 in 20?" says Peters outside the mall. "It was more like 8 in 20".
It is one of New Zealand's political cliches. Write Winston Peters off, then add the rider "but you can never write Winston Peters off".
Surf the blogs, watch the TV, read the newspaper columns - the commentariat think he's a goner. But is he? Peters is out there, walking the malls, doing the speeches, shoring up those pockets of support...
The suspended Minister of Racing bursts into laughter when he learns the name of the horse he is patting.
Perfect Excuse. He sees the funny side after a series of not-so-perfect excuses got him through the donations controversy.
The racing industry, like the small group of trainers he's visiting at the Awapuni racecourse in Palmerston North, need no excuse to vote for him.
As racing minister, Peters' reforms have pumped around $32 million a year into the industry. Tax write-downs have encouraged people to buy horses and he's topped up stakes with Government money.
He's introduced as the Racing Minister, though he's still stood down because of the donations controversy. He's still "Sir Winston" to these guys.
His message to Awapuni's trainers is simple: "The only protection you've got is if I get back." It's a message Peters extends to the 40,000 people he estimates are benefiting from the now-thriving industry. The campaign trail has taken him to the Kelt Capital stakes and three other race events.
The dozen Awapuni trainers nod in agreement. He has their vote. Garry Vile is one. He was going to get out of racing but, after seeing Peters' racing policy accepted in his agreement with Labour, invested in the $300,000 stables that house Perfect Excuse.
Charlie Walding is another. This is despite having Labour in his blood - he's the nephew of Joe Walding, the long-time Palmerston North MP.
Walding will overlook disagreements with NZ First policy because of what Peters has done for racing.
"He's changed everything for us. Not one of us in their right mind would do otherwise."
Does it matter that Peters reportedly got secret funding involving racing magnates the Vela brothers?
"Peter and Philip and Patrick Hogan [also a Peters supporter] are wealthy blokes. Can't they spend their money how the like? It's not like they're giving it to a gangster."
Out on another walkabout, a white-haired woman walks up to Peters and says "I don't vote NZ First and I don't agree with you, but my husband and I have just turned 65 and we thought we should really say thank you for the GoldCard it's really nice."
Peters: "You can say thank you and give me your second [party] vote".
The woman starts to walk away.
Peters: "They'll take it off you, no GoldCard. I know what they did last time. Every time they get in trouble they attack the elderly. I can't protect you if you haven't saved me."
Peters has delivered to the superannuitants. There's the Super GoldCard, with half-price off-peak travel. There's discounted hearing aids and tax cuts increasing super.
Peters is also tapping into the "cuzzie factor", making a beeline for every Maori he sees. There's the odd hongi, a handshake, a gidday even for the guy who keeps calling him "Peter".
Peters simply asked Maori for their party vote, knowing that the Maori Party is strong in the electorate.
He has attacked the "separatist" Maori Party, but hasn't gone full bore yet, probably so he doesn't lose NZ First's Maori vote.
What exactly he is going to do for Maori is unclear. His message to Maori has been one of pride, and he has pointed out the high number of Maori on NZ First's list,
Lisa Sisk, 31 and Donna Hapeta, 30 will be voting for Peters too.
"He's one of the cuzzies," says Donna. "And the immigration thing."
It works both ways. Pakeha slaughterhouse worker Karl Baird, 39, will vote for Peters because "Maori guy or not, his issues are really what we all see".
Peters has dusted off his other trusty campaign ammunition - immigration-bashing. It looks desperate but Peters is desperate.
"When times are tough internationally, immigrants are attracted to New Zealand like moths to a neon light" was his campaign speech, and he says immigration should be cut from 50,000 to 10,000 to protect jobs during the global financial crisis. But the attack is without the vitriol or labels of previous campaigns.
And other countries have since said the same thing. Britain's Immigration Minister, Phil Woolas, has said there will be tougher restrictions as the crisis lifts unemployment, and Australia's Immigration Minister, Chris Evans, has hinted the same.
The economic crisis has landed in Peters' lap, letting him rail against "voodoo economics" and preach NZ First's economic nationalism.
Peters' big idea has been to float shares in Kiwibank and channel all the Government's $55 billion a year business through it.
He wants to sell off a 24.9 per cent stake to New Zealanders, and only let those shares be on-sold to New Zealanders.
Barney Atkinson, 20, banks with Kiwibank and likes the Peters plan because "the profits won't be going offshore .We should be handling Kiwi affairs here. We've got to give it a try."
Out mall-walking, it's clear Peters has fame other politicians could only wish for: he is asked for a photo by a young woman who turns out to be Alice Beames, daughter of Labour MP Chris Carter.
But the reality is that virtually all polls have had NZ First below 5 per cent, particularly since the donations controversy took the wind out of what had been a productive term as governing partner. Winning Tauranga back is possible, but a long-shot.
Friday's Herald-DigiPoll had NZ First at 2.1 per cent. A TV3 poll found the party creeping up to 3.5 per cent.
Peters is 63, and will have his own GoldCard at the next election. But he has his Houdini history on his side. He entered Parliament in 1978, after winning a High Court electoral petition. In 1999, seemingly dead and buried, he squeaked home, nabbing Tauranga by 63 votes. Last election, he lost Tauranga but got home on the party vote.
Timing has been on his side. The Serious Fraud Office cleared NZ First of fraud on the eve of the campaign proper and this week the Electoral Commission said it would not prosecute NZ First for failing to declare donations in 2005, 2006 and 2007 - but pinged the Act Party for the same offence.
Peters missed something on his otherwise successful mall walking expedition in Palmerston North.
The Muffin Break was running a "bean hive" poll for customers. National had the most beans, Labour just behind as the "Wanna bean".
Peters had only a few beans, enough to rank him "Not to bean".
But Winston Peters doesn't comment on polls.
Peters' hot button issues:
* Mates in racing
* The oldies
* Immigration (again)
* The 'cuzzies'
* Economic nationalism
* His history of narrow escapes
Peters bridging the poll gap:
Winston Peters says Tauranga "doesn't need any more bridges".
It is a reference to the toll-free second harbour bridge he secured through New Zealand First's confidence and supply agreement with Labour - and a dig at National's candidate, Simon Bridges. The conventional wisdom is that Peters can't beat the dashing Crown Prosecutor.
The single electorate survey - a OneNews Colmar Brunton poll - put Bridges on 48 per cent and Peters on 20 per cent popularity. But this was taken at the height of the donations controversy and before Peters started campaigning. Since then, Peters has been hitting Tauranga three times a week.
Observers say his campaign isn't complacent as it was in the last campaign, when National's Bob Clarkson unseated him.
Peters may also have pulled another rabbit out of the hat by promising to deliver a tunnel under the busy Harini roundabout at Welcome Bay.
Labour candidate Anne Pankhurst said there was no doubt the gap was closing between the two. The Tauranga Boys College pre-election poll of 126 students had Bridges on 48 per cent, six points in front of Peters.
