Local mayors may be quitting as a result of Three Waters, but their replacements will be hard pressed to change the reforms. Photo / 123RF
After this year's local body elections there will be new mayors and chief executives leading Northland's three district councils, making for a "hurricane of change".
Mayoral races are happening against the backdrop of Three Waters reform, resource management changes, and a review of local government.
What's been labelled the "reform storm" is at least in part responsible for the vacancies right across the region.
Local Democracy reporter for Northland Susan Botting described it as a hurricane of change.
"There's always leadership churn. I think the churn this time is kind of churn on steroids- there's a lot of change", she told the Herald's politics podcast On The Tiles - Local Edition.
Whangārei mayor Sheryl Mai is stepping down after three terms in the top job.
There are seven candidates vying to replace her, two of which are current sitting councillors, Botting said.
"It's interesting because it's not like a high-profile race like it would be if it was Marcus Lush versus Tim Shadbolt, for example."
"We have a variety of people running a variety of campaigns and I think that it depends who you ask as to who's going to be the front runner on the day and who might be now."
The incumbents all have various reasons for stepping down, Botting said
Far North mayor John Carter, who was also a former Associate Minister of Local Government, is now in his 70s and has done his time.
Kaipara mayor Jason Smith wants to run as the National Party candidate for the Northland electorate, citing the "reform storm being brewed by the Government" when he confirmed he was not seeking re-election.
"Some quarters say that it's really important to have new mayors that are experienced in the face of the hurricane, and others say no, new broom," Botting said.
Botting expected issues like rates bills, resource management reform, parks and recreation, resilience, and Three Waters will feature on the campaign trail.
Mai has been especially critical of the Government's Three Waters reform agenda arguing Whangārei has invested wisely in its infrastructure and is in a good position compared to other authorities.
Botting said the issue was something mayoral hopefuls would have to "get to grips with".
The reforms will move New Zealand's drinking, waste and stormwater management to four new water entities, instead of 67 councils.
Whangārei District Council along with South Canterbury's Timaru District Council and Waimakariri District Council, has challenged the Minister of Local Government Nanaia Mahuta and Secretary for Internal Affairs Paul James over Three Waters.
Mai has claimed the Government is expropriating council-owned water assets without conceding it was taking these assets, and without fair compensation being paid to communities for their property.
Councils are still waiting on the outcome of the court decision. Whether it will be released before or after local body elections is anyone's guess.
Botting said a ruling in favour of what the councils say is the traditional view of "ownership" will likely open the Government up to having to pay councils compensation for their Three Waters assets.
"You can imagine the bill nationally," Botting said.
New Zealand Herald senior political reporter Thomas Coughlan told the podcast Three Waters reform was now a forgone conclusion.
Labour has an absolutely majority, even after rogue MP Gaurav Sharma was expelled from the caucus last week.
Coughlan said hiring for executive members was already under way, despite the entities not even existing yet.
"They're a twinkle in the Government's eye, but they're already hiring for people to work on them."
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The 19-year-old was found in a remote area in the hills of Upper Hutt.