Obesity to shorten many lives

For the first time in 1000 years, future generations are likely to die at a younger age than their parents.

A New England Journal of Medicine study predicts life expectancy, which has been rising for centuries, will drop by as much as five years in the next few decades.
Researchers say increasing numbers of obese and overweight adults will bring the figure down as they die from conditions such as diabetes, heart disease and cancer.

The problem is expected to get worse as today's obese and overweight children hit middle age.

" Obesity will, if unchecked, have a negative effect on life expectancy," the report's authors said.

The US research predicts life expectancy will decline in the first half of this century by up to nine months, and as much as five years as today's obese children age.

New Zealand experts warn the trend will be mirrored here.

At the moment New Zealand women can expect to live to an average of 81.2 years and men 76.7 years.

Dr Robyn Toomath, of the Fight the Obesity Epidemic group, said the decline in life expectancy would be accompanied by an increase in obesity-related fertility problems.

But far more serious were the future health problems for today's overweight population, she said.

"If you could know the degree of pessimism and alarm that I genuinely feel over this, shortened life is nothing really.

"The thing that I am more concerned about are the children with diabetes who are going to end up on dialysis machines in their 30s."

Dr Ashley Bloomfield, the Ministry of Heath's chief adviser on public health, said obesity was "almost certainly" having an impact on life expectancy.

"If we don't address what is probably the public health issue of our time the gains made will slow down and possibly start to reverse," Dr Bloomfield said.

Dr Arunachalam Dharmalingam, senior lecturer in population studies at Waikato University, said obesity statistics showedNew Zealand was likely to experience similar trends to other Western countries.

However, the American study, which said factors such as pollution, pandemic influenza and the use of tobacco could also hit life expectancy, has been criticised by other researchers as "excessively gloomy".

A United Nations study said life expectancy could reach 100 in many countries by 2300.

FAT NATION

About half a million adult New Zealanders are obese - twice as many as 25 years ago.

An estimated one in 10 school-age children are obese and one in five are overweight.

Being overweight or obese puts people at greater risk of many conditions such as diabetes, heart disease and strokes.

Studies have estimated that obesity can reduce a person's life by five to 20 years.

About 120,000 New Zealanders have been diagnosed with type-two diabetes, and as many again are thought to be undiagnosed.