NZ to hit new heights in Rio

Big things are expected of Peter Burling (left) and Blair Tuke in Rio. Photo / John Borren

Olympic expert says 2016 shapes as the year of the Kiwi with record medal haul in store

If the Rio Olympics were held tomorrow, New Zealand would stand to collect a record 18 medals, including eight golds and 12 medals won by women.

That's according to an investigation by Luciano Barra, the former director of the Italian Olympic Committee, who is renowned for producing detailed and accurate pre-Olympic projections.

New Zealand ranks as the 10th-best nation on a list of world championship medals in Olympic sports, taken from 2013 and 2014.

Barra estimates New Zealand should collect 18 medals (eight gold, five silver and five bronze) at the Rio Games, 12 of which would be earned by women. The country's best performance on the overall medal table has been eighth with eight gold, one silver and two bronze at the boycott-affected 1984 Games in Los Angeles.

The biggest medal haul is 13, achieved at the 2012 London Olympics and 1988 Seoul Games.

A lot can change between now and the August 2016 Olympics in Rio, like injuries, form and retirements, but the signs are positive.

Rowing provides the bulk of candidates, with Emma Twigg (single sculls), Hamish Bond and Eric Murray (men's pair), Zoe Stevenson and Fiona Bourke (women's pair) and Sophie MacKenzie and Julia Edward (lightweight women's double).

Others tipped for victory are: shot putter Val Adams, cyclists Ethan Mitchell, Sam Webster and Eddie Dawkins (men's team sprint), canoeist Lisa Carrington (K1 200m) and sailors Peter Burling and Blair Tuke (49er).

Other sports to feature on Barra's list include triathlon (Andrea Hewitt and Nicky Samuels, silver and bronze) and swimming (Lauren Boyle, two bronze).

The table must be digested in a measured fashion, given the Olympics are more than 21 months away. The year prior to the Games tends to be a better gauge of capability.

Before London, Barra estimated New Zealand would finish 10th with eight gold, three silver and eight bronze. In reality they finished 15th with six gold, two silver and five bronze.

However, the Italian predicted eight of the top 10 countries and was within three medals of the correct tally for four of them (Russia, Great Britain, Japan and Australia). His biggest misses were the United States (predicted 78, actual 104) and China (predicted 100, actual 88).

Barra stresses his research provides "projections, not predictions" but it will be a helpful factual snapshot when High Performance Sport New Zealand negotiates next year's funding round this month. The final taxpayer investment for 2015 (and in some cases beyond) is expected before Christmas.

HPSNZ have added potential medals to their own tables for golfer Lydia Ko, who is ranked No3, and the men's and women's sevens sides, who were both world champions last year. Those results would take New Zealand's haul to 21 medals (10 gold, five silver, six bronze) and eighth on the table, one spot ahead of Australia on the basis of gold medals.

The addition of sevens and golf takes the number of Olympic sporting disciplines to 306 for Rio compared to 302 for London. Barra's table includes world championships for all but 10 disciplines in sevens, golf, tennis and women's football.

The research projects the table-topping countries in Rio will be the US (88 medals, 35 gold), China (80, 32) and Russia (88, 28).